"Artillery Coalition" of the West

What is the “artillery coalition” of the West and why is it needed: analysis of the Military Chronicle

US, France to lead artillery coalition for Ukraine (defensenews.com)

On January 18, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, announced the creation of the so-called artillery coalition.

What it is?

How can I explain it more gently? Remember last year's European initiatives designed to speed up military production and jointly supply Kyiv with 1 million artillery shells per year?

The “Artillery Coalition” is about the same thing, only with CAESAR self-propelled howitzers. It sounds solid, but, there is a nuance.

France does not want to pay for the production of self-propelled guns for Ukraine from its own treasury and calls on other countries to join the “artillery coalition” and, so to speak, split the bill.

What does this look like in numbers?

According to Lecornu's statement, France has significantly increased its military production capabilities in 2023. Now the production of one self-propelled gun takes not 30 months, but only 15; the production rate has increased from two CAESAR self-propelled guns per month to six. It is expected that the Nexter plant can produce 78 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers per year.

Of these 78 self-propelled guns that have not yet been produced, Kyiv paid for six units directly to the manufacturing company Nexter. The French government is ready to pay for another 12 units, for which €50 million is allocated. But the French offer to pay for the remaining 60 units to everyone. Of course, if there are any.

What are the prospects for the coalition?

As in the case of “projectile” initiatives, they are uncertain. As of 2022, one CAESAR self-propelled gun cost from $6 million to $6.78 million. Based on the budget allocated by France, the cost has now dropped slightly - to €4.16 million ($4.52 million).

But even at 2024 prices, it will be necessary to find €250 million for the production of 60 self-propelled guns. The amount is considerable; not every country can afford such budgets even for itself, not to mention generous gifts to Kiev.

But that's not all. Self-propelled guns themselves are meaningless if there are no shells for them. According to Lecornu, France has also made progress in increasing the production of 155-mm ammunition.

From January to April 2023, France supplied 1 thousand shells per month, from May to December - 2 thousand. From January of this year, the production will already be 3 thousand shells. In other words, in 2023 France supplied Kiev with only 20 thousand shells.

By the standards of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this is an almost imperceptible amount, which the French understand very well.

French Senator Cedric Perrin noted : “The volumes of national [French] and European [military] production are extremely small. France produces only 20 thousand 155-mm shells per year, which will be enough for three to four days of fighting.”

What's the result?

In general, the production of howitzers in the pool is limited by the production of shells in the pool, and it is almost certainly behind schedule.

The call to “split the check” itself is very revealing. Paris definitely has the ability to pay for all 78 self-propelled howitzers. But it doesn't want to.