BCG's (Boston Consulting Group) World Trade Outlook 2023

 BCG's (Boston Consulting Group) World Trade Outlook 2023

The depth of the trade gap between Russia and Europe has not bottomed out in 2023. BCG's new World Trade Outlook 2032 says that Russia's trade with Europe (EU+UK) will shrink by $243bn over 10 years.


BCG's model assumes that the sanctions regime against Russia will remain in place until 2032, and that Europe and the US will stop trading with Russia, excluding critical supplies.
 In 2022, EU-Russia trade reached $295bn, so it should fall to $73bn by 2032. In the first 10 months of 2023, EU-Russia trade has already fallen by 55% to $137bn. A further widening of the ~50bn trade gap with Europe lies ahead. 


BCG points out that Russian trade has not been eliminated, but rather reoriented towards the BRICS markets. Trade with China and India will grow by $134bn and $26bn respectively.


BCG now sees the U.S. gap with China as much more dramatic. Trade will fall by $197bn by 2032. This is more than three times the estimate of -$63bn a year ago.



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