Dawn Editorials with Summary and Vocabulary

DAWN EDITORIALS

January 8, 2024 (Monday)

Day’s Vocabulary

• Formidable.          inspiring fear or respect through being impressively large, powerful, intense, or capable
• Brom­a­nce. A bromance is a very close and non-sexual relationship between two or more men
• Conflagration.     an extensive fire which destroys a great deal of land or property
• Clout.           influence or power, especially in politics or business
• Poignant.   evoking a keen sense of sadness or regret
• Stark.           severe or bare in appearance or outline
• Pummel.     strike repeatedly with the fists
• Concomitant.      naturally accompanying or associated
• Farce.           a comic dramatic work using buffoonery
• Defer.           put off (an action or event) to a later time; postpone
• Fiddle.          an act of defrauding, cheating, or falsifying
• Embroiled. involve (someone) deeply in an argument, conflict, or difficult situation
• Clarion.       loud and clear, a shrill narrow-tubed war trumpet
• Schism.       a split or division between strongly opposed sections or parties, caused by differences in opinion or belief
• Reprehensible.    deserving censure or condemnation
• Dissent.      the expression or holding of opinions at variance with those previously, commonly, or officially held
• Apathy.       lack of interest, enthusiasm, or concern
• Festering.  (of a wound or sore) forming pus; septic
• Etched.        engrave (metal, glass, or stone) by coating it with a protective layer
• Machinations.     a plot or scheme

Tougher challenges lies ahead

Summary

• The upcoming elections in Pakistan will be followed by even more formidable challenges for the country.
• The next government will face a volatile domestic environment, including a polarized political climate, the most serious economic crisis in the country's history, and a decline in the capacity of state institutions.
• The most urgent challenge will be to address the economic crisis. This will require structural reforms, including tax reform, a more equitable tax regime, and a liberal business regulatory framework.
• It is also important to invest in human capital, as Pakistan is facing a "silent, deep human capital crisis." This includes expanding education and skills training, especially for young people.
• Population planning is another important issue that needs to be addressed, as Pakistan's high population growth rate is putting a strain on resources and economic development.
• Reform of the institutional machinery of state is also needed, as the politicization of the civil service has undermined its capacity to deliver public services.
• The government will need to avoid confrontational politics and work in a consensual way to address these challenges.

 

Article

All eyes are on the general elections, now just a month away. But what will happen after the election will be far more consequential to the country’s future. Formidable challenges await the next government.

The governing ability of the election winner will be constrained by the complex dynamics of a volatile domestic environment. This is characterised by persisting polarisation, the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, surge in security threats, declining capacity of state institutions, a fraught regional situation and a polity in which power has shifted more substantively to the military establishment.

A slew of domestic and external challenges will test the government. These challenges will require the elected leadership to distinguish between the urgent and important while crafting a strategy to deal with both. Most consequential for the country’s future will be the government’s ability to deal with an economy in the critical ward.

Pakistan’s economic crises have all been rooted in governance deficits, with reform-averse ruling elites resorting to pain-free ways to deal with deep-seated problems. This band-aid approach that relied on borrowing at home and external financing or bailouts from abroad has run its course and is no longer tenable.

Unless structural issues are tackled, the country will not be able escape from the trap of anaemic growth, high deficits, heavy borrowing, growing indebtedness and soaring inflation. The structural sources of persisting financial imbalances lie in a narrow and inequitable tax regime, limited export base, the energy sector’s circular debt, bankrupt public-sector enterprises, heavy regulatory burden and low savings and investment.

What is needed is a comprehensive plan to address these structural issues and chart a path to sustainable growth that can end the vicious cycle of high budget/ balance-of-payments deficits and chronic foreign exchange crises, which have necessitated repeated IMF bailouts.

This in turn requires a bold and courageous leadership that leads a competent team, sees the significance of deep structural reforms and has the commitment to take measures, painful in the near term, but which yield enduring dividends in the long run.

None is more important than tax reform to make the regime equitable and simple. For decades the tax-to-GDP ratio has remained stuck at 10 per cent. Resource mobilisation, by widening the tax base, bringing untaxed sectors into the net, ensuring compliance, reforming GST and ending exemptions, is the single most important endeavour to address the chronic budget deficit and set the economy toward sustainability. A liberal and consistent business regulatory framework is also necessary to build and sustain investor confidence.

Both the urgent and important have to be tackled to extricate Pakistan from crisis.

While dealing with the urgent — the immediate financial crisis — the important too has to be addressed, issues just as consequential to the country’s economic progress and future. This means investment in human capital. Failure to do so has already left the country with rising poverty, sharply deteriorating social indicators and at the bottom of global human development rankings — a situation the World Bank calls a “silent, deep human capital crisis.”

Unde­rinvestment has meant around 40pc of Pakistanis are still illiterate, over 20 million school-age children are out of school, poverty has risen to almost 40pc and health indicators including malnutrition levels remain grim. Economic progress can only be predicated on a solid educational base.

This requires a long-term plan to widen the coverage and improve the quality of education. But it can no longer be postponed especially because of Pakistan’s demographic structure and youth bulge. Unless the scale and quality of education is expanded young people with no education or skills will face a jobless and hopeless future and a life of poverty.

Population planning has rarely figured in any government’s priorities for many decades. Pakistan’s population of 242m makes it the world’s fifth most populous nation with the annual growth rate of 2.5pc among the highest in the region. This has far-reaching economic and social consequences.

With youth constituting 64pc of the population under 30, it means almost 4m young people join the working-age population every year. This in turn requires over a million new jobs to be created annually. The confluence of demographics, economic stagnation and persisting education and gender gaps acts as a significant obstacle to economic development and confronts Pakistan with the spectre of social instability.

Reform of the institutional machinery of state should also be among important issues on the next government’s agenda. The eroding capacity of the institutions of governance imposes obvious constraints on the exercise of power and ability to execute policies. Politicisation of the civil service has over the decades undermined merit and professionalism, corroded service morale, eroded its authority and sapped its capacity to efficiently deliver public services.

Postponed reforms have further contributed to the decline in the quality of the civil service and weakened state capacity. As a result, the state’s basic functions to tax, maintain law and order and to educate have all been adversely affected.

It is also responsible for the long-term decline in public confidence in government institutions, as reflected in successive opinion surveys. Institutional strengthening and civil service reform must therefore be an integral part of the government’s agenda of turning the economy around, ensuring effective policy implementation and improving overall governance.

Focusing on these pivotal issues will require the government to avoid getting entangled in confrontational politics against its opponents.

That means a conscious effort to break from an unedifying past which has seen endless government-opposition confrontations and distracted from the job of governance.

In fact, to establish a stable and predictable environment the government should aim to work democracy in a consensual way by the display of tolerance and accommodation of views other than its own. The federal nature of the polity makes this imperative especially as the electoral outcome may leave some provinces in the hands of political parties different from the one controlling the centre.

In any case democracy cannot be limited to the ballot box. It should determine how the country is governed between elections.

Misplaced Nostalgia

Summary

• US-Pakistan relations are unlikely to be a priority for the US under either Trump or Biden.
• The US is more likely to focus on India as a strategic partner in the region.
• Trump's economic policies, such as tariffs on Chinese goods, could have a negative impact on Pakistan's economy.
• Trump's foreign policy, such as his stance on Ukraine and Israel, could lead to global instability and deprioritization of the Global South.
• Trump's climate change denial and anti-immigration rhetoric would also have negative implications for Pakistan.
• Overall, a Trump presidency would likely be detrimental to the interests of the Pakistani people.

Article

US President Joe Biden is not cool enough, not young enough, not pro-Palestinian enough. Young Democrats are disappointed by his approach to Gaza, while older voters remain grumpy about inflation. Political forecasters are therefore predicting a win for Donald Trump in this year’s US election. So it’s time to ask, what would a Trump win mean for Pakistan?

Pakistanis may have a misplaced nostalgia for the Trump era, recalling the brom­a­nce with Imran Khan and the offer to mediate between Islamabad and Delhi over Kashmir. But that reset of ties in 2019 (only a year after Trump had accused Pak­istan of ‘lies and deceit’) was transactional, and rooted in the context of Pakistani support engaging with the Afghan Taliban to facilitate a US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

US-Pakistan relations continue to be de­­fined by security considerations but times have changed and a second-term Trump administration (much like another Biden administration) is unlikely to prioritise ties. The US’s key interests have been that nuclear-armed Pakistan is not irreversibly destabilised, that India-Pakistan tensions do not devolve into conflict, and that the region does not become a hotbed of global militancy. Nominally, Washington would also like to prevent Pakistan from falling entirely into China’s sphere of influence.

In 2024, a destabilised Pakistan still poses less threat than a nuclear-armed Russia and a Middle Eastern conflagration. The US has also learned that containment is a good option when it comes to ‘troublesome’ states (think Afghanistan, Iran, Syria). India’s growing global clout also means that Washington will increasingly turn to New Delhi to manage regional security (and the Kashmir issue will be a non-starter with Trump, who is likely to look favourably on ending the Russia-Ukraine war by letting Moscow gain control of several Ukrainian territories). And given that the US recently assessed Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group to be at their weakest since inception, the bogeyman of militancy is a less compelling reason for sustained US engagement with Pakistan. All that remai­­ns is a battle for regional influence with China.

Trumpian economic pressure on China would not be good for Pakistan.

In that context, as Aizaz Chaudhry recently pointed out, the US has already identified India as the strategic partner to counterbalance China. Moreover, a Trump administration’s power games with China will be less about global influence and more about economic dominance. With an ‘Ame­rica First’ mentality, Trump will not cosy up with China’s allies, but will instead focus on penalising Chinese companies by imposing skyrocketing tariffs on Chinese imports.

Trumpian economic pressure on China would not be good news for Pakistan. Pak­is­tani goods would be subject to the same tariffs placed on foreign imports, which is pro­b­lematic given that the US remains Pa­­­k­­istan’s largest export destination by a long stretch. Further economic uncertainty for China would also mean a greater emphasis by Beijing on debt collection, and so more pressure on Pakistan in the CPEC context.

Trump is likely to cut military aid to Ukraine, resume ties with Russia, threaten to quit Nato or heighten US-Europe tensions by demanding Nato allies increase defence expenditure. These developments would lead to global political and economic uncertainty resulting in a deprioritisation and neglect of the Global South’s challenges overall.

Trump would also be likely to double down on US backing for Israel. This may set the stage for a US-Israel face off with Middle Eastern countries backed by Gulf states (compelled to shelve plans for reconciling with Israel) and tangentially supported by China. This would create some opportunities for Pakistan to invigorate ties with Gulf allies and other key Muslim states.

Beyond these considerations, an­­other Trump term would have negative implications for Pakistan. Trump is a climate change denier, and is un­­likely to take bold strides to fund the Loss and Damage Fund or drive other climate finance initiatives. Climate-vulnerable countries like Pakistan will be among the worst-hit if the next US president takes climate change off the global agenda.

Trump’s toxic rhetoric on immigration, too, will disadvantage Pakistanis. He will embolden right-wing, anti-immigrant parties across the developed world, leading to further curbs on legal immigration. Given the growing number of conflict, climate and economic migrants from Pakistan, further Western hostility to immigration would be damaging, limiting future remittances that help build resilience in our economy against shocks.

In sum, a Trump presidency would help the country’s powers that be in terms of turning a blind eye to authoritarian tendencies but it would spell more misery for the people, who need strong global leaders committed to tackling the climate crisis, addressing economic inequality and defending human rights.

GST to NST Challenges

Summary

• Climate change is addressed at two levels: international conversations and domestic actions.
• The annual climate summit (COP) is a key event for negotiating agreements on climate change.
• After COP, countries conduct a National Stock Take (NST) to assess progress and make plans.
• The first Global Stock Take (GST) after the Paris Agreement found that progress is slow and commitments are unlikely to be met.
• Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to governance issues, resource constraints, and lack of technology.
• Climate finance will not be enough to meet the needs of vulnerable countries.
• Countries need to take responsibility to reduce risks, build capacity, and invest in climate adaptation.
• Pakistan needs to make significant changes to its policies and practices to address climate change.
• Climate change should be at the center of development plans and security conversations.
• The emerging global order is likely to be less generous and more transactional, so countries need to be prepared to adapt.

Article

Climate change is addressed at two levels. This includes conversations in the international arena and actions on the home theatre. The global climate conversation takes place every year at an annual summit, using a multilateral platform to reach negotiated agreements on contentious issues. The outcome of climate summits has an impact on every country, with varying degrees of intensity, depending on the national circumstance. The two hotly contested issues at the annual gatherings of parties revolve around finance and timelines for mitigation. The Conference of Parties (COP) has expanded to include civil society organisations, environmental activists, private sector, scientists and many more to optimise the two-week duration for pitching views and networking to forge alliances.

However, real work for each country begins once representatives return to their home base and review COP outcomes to undertake a National Stock Take (NST). This is an important exercise because it puts policymakers face to face with a reality closer to home and more poignant in impact. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) require each country to make mitigation and adaptation commitments. These may provide a rationale at negotiations for the inability to meet commitments, especially if it is linked to external finance. But that doesn’t stop climate from changing and unleashing devastation. The COP outcome is a reality-check moment of reckoning.

This year was the first Global Stock Take (GST) after the 2015 Paris Agreement to assess progress on commitments. The outcome is a stark reminder of some harsh truths. The lethargic pace is increasing the risk factor for one half of humanity. The need for 40pc emissions reduction by 2030 and 60pc by 2035 is unlikely to materialise. The pledges in finance fall short by trillions of dollars in meeting the needs of the Global South.

The simple truth is that higher the vulnerability, greater the risk. If this is compounded by resource crunch, capacity constraints and lack of technology, the challenges are likely to get amplified.

Pakistan is a classic case of governance shortcoming, maladaptation and climate injustice. The country stands at a critical juncture of its history, pummelled by multiple crises, to decide its future trajectory. The task of providing basic needs and amenities to a population of 240 million, growing at an annual rate of 2.55pc, with an economy in dire straits and a 40pc rate of inflation needs urgent solutions that cannot wait for climate finance or COP decisions to seek relief.

The need for 40pc emissions reduction by 2030 is unlikely to materialise.

The one clear takeaway from climate summits is the fact that climate finance will never be enough to meet the needs of vulnerable populations in the world. Each country will also have to take responsibility to reduce risks, build capacity, invest strategically and tap multiple avenues to increase revenue flows.

Looking at its location and resources, Pakistan will have to choose between past policies and new options to evaluate risks associated with business as usual and shifting stance to embrace change. The NST includes looking at current social, economic and environmental indicators against a political backdrop of past performance, and forging a consensus on the way forward. Changing climate means drastic shifts in all sectors and concomitant changes in doing business to brave impending upheavals.

Pakistan has the potential to transform and carve a new future for itself. Its location, geography and topography make it ideally suited for trade, transit and tourism. Peace and prosperity go hand in hand to unlock new opportunities for growth and development. A perspective change in narrative is needed to course correct. Therefore, the NST must take into account the deteriorating impact of human security on peace and stability. In future, all calibrations in setting strategic goals – from geopolitical shifts in alignments to changes in national politics and regional arrangements – will be done with a view to strengthening economic cooperation and safeguarding national security. The change in climate and its impact on natural resources will also redefine positioning within and beyond borders. Destabilisation in society at a time of acute scarcity will accelerate chaos and hasten the unravelling of existing systems.

It is very important to put climate at the centre of development plans and at the heart of security conversations to prepare for transitioning to a different world and way of doing business. The emerging global order is likely to be less generous and more transactional in its functions. With time running out, Pakistan has much to take stock of and many important decisions to make.

The wrong foot forward

Summary

• Democracy in Pakistan is at stake due to unfair electoral processes and political parties' over-reliance on establishment patronage.
• The state's use of force against peaceful Baloch protesters and its failure to address enforced disappearances have sparked outrage and calls for change.
• The caretaker PM's controversial remarks about Baloch protesters have further alienated the marginalized community.
• Violence related to terrorism has surged to a six-year high, raising concerns about stability ahead of the elections.
• All eyes are on the chief justice and army chief to ensure free and fair elections and uphold the rule of law.

Article

In the upcoming national elections, it seems democracy itself is at stake. The electoral process has been reduced to an “undemocratic farce”.

A reputable pro-democracy civil society watchdog has urged that course correction is needed for transition from hybrid to a normal functioning democracy. It has affirmed the reality that the top political parties are addicted to patronage by the establishment. “Deferring course correction may not be an option much longer. It may be a luxury the country of young Pakistanis cannot afford,” Pildat has said.

Pakistan is dubbed an “electoral autocracy” by certain international democracy rating think tanks. Parties addicted to patronage are busy managing alliances to form fractured governments for the string-pullers to call the shots. Their leaders suffer from a crisis of confidence as their fate depends on keeping the establishment on board. They are content to play second fiddle.

Democracy, security and constitutionalism are the key issues confronting the nation. In the aftermath of the use of force against peaceful Baloch protesters in Islamabad, the issue of enforced disappearances has become part of the national agenda.

A critical question arises: what does the state owe to its citizens, especially those who have been marginalised for decades? The plight of the Baloch, embroiled in a struggle for recognition and justice, is a clarion call for immediate attention from the state.

It is not just a political issue but a humanitarian crisis. The current protest, characterised by its urban, middle-class, and youth-led nature, and notably the inclusion of women, is a testament to a changing Balochistan. As this paper has observed editorially, “enforced disappearances and extrajudicial tactics only deepen the schism and perpetuate a cycle of violence and mistrust”.

The state’s response to these protests must be of engagement, not suppression. The judiciary has a crucial role to play. Its courage in addressing this issue is essential for meaningful change. The state must abandon its outmoded tactics and adopt a more inclusive, humane approach to governance. It must act to build bridges of trust and understanding. The longer it delays, the greater the risk of permanent alienation.

The controversial remarks by the caretaker PM regarding the Baloch protest clearly undermine the “very essence of the struggle”. His remarks for those who show empathy for the cause of the Baloch protesters to “join the militants” were clearly in bad taste. It amounted to adding salt to the wounds of the marginalised segment of the polity.

The march of the Baloch to Islamabad is a peaceful protest against the state for the recovery of the missing persons and against the reprehensible tactics of enforced disappearances as well as against extrajudicial killings, like the one reportedly carried out through the CTD in Turbat a few weeks back that became the trigger for the current protests seeking truth and justice as their basic fundamental rights.

What does the state owe to its citizens, especially those who have been marginalised for decades?

How can the state deny them these rights? It clearly indicates “intolerance towards dissent and criticism”. One expected empathy, understanding and constructive approach from the political leaders instead of indifference and apathy. Dialogue and reconciliation, not deterrence, are the keys to heal the festering wounds of dissent smouldering in Balochistan for over two decades now. It is time to build bridges, not widen schisms.

It is also a matter of grave concern that in the pre-poll scenario, militants have been “spreading their vicious tentacles”.

Violence-related deaths shot to a six-year high in 2023 as some 789 terror attacks and CT operations resulted in more than 1,500 deaths, including about 1,000 civilian and security personnel casualties last year. The failure of the state is quite evident, especially considering the trends of increasing violence in the preceding two years.

As reported, “The year 2023 saw a staggering 69pc upsurge in violent incidents as the militants struck with impunity with 53 attacks per month on average, compared to 32 strikes a month a year earlier.”

Moreover, “banned groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) were involved in over 82pc of terrorism-related casualties and conducted 78pc of terror attacks last year,” according to a security report. The worrying signs for the key stakeholders should be “the deepening fissures between the citizenry and the state owing to the sociopolitical instability”. This paper warned that “any misstep may trigger long-lasting repercussions that could haunt us for years”.

In this grim scenario, all eyes are on two chiefs. The chief justice of Pakistan has shown his commitment to ensure that the national elections date of Feb 8 is etched in stone.

Will the Supreme Court ensure a level-playing field for those whose right to contest elections is being denied through machinations that amount to ‘political cleansing’?

And then there is the army chief, who pledged protection to the nation on New Year’s Eve. “We take pride in our unwavering commitment to the people of Pakistan. Army and the nation are one. No one can defeat the spirit of Pakistan… Undoubtedly, our great nation will rise, in line with the dreams of our forefathers and aspirations of the people”.

In the light of such sterling resolve, he cannot afford to move the wrong foot forward at this crucial stage of democratic transition. The people of Pakistan demand free and fair elections. Let them exercise their choice without any fear or coercion.

History will judge both chiefs: one for ensuring justice, impartiality and the rule of law and the other for secure, fair and truly democratic elections.