Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

DAWN EDITORIALS

January 29, 2024 (Monday)

Day’s Vocabulary

• Depredation.        an act of attacking or plundering
• Discern.      perceive or recognize (something)
• Evangelical.          of or according to the teaching of the gospel or the Christian religion
• Perquisite. another term for perk
• Paranoia.   Paranoia is an instinct or thought process that is believed to be heavily influenced by anxiety, suspicion, or fear, often to the point of delusion and irrationality
• Scion.           a descendant of a notable family
• Plummeting.        fall or drop straight down at high speed
• Unbridled. uncontrolled; unconstrained
• Rickety.       (of a structure or piece of equipment) poorly made and likely to collapse
• Cobbled.      roughly assemble or put together something from available parts or elements

Solving Sebutinde

Summary

• ICJ ruling on Israel: The article criticizes the ICJ ruling for not explicitly calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict.
• Dissenting judge: Ugandan judge Julia Sebutinde dissented, opposing all measures against Israel and claiming no genocide occurred.
• Sebutinde's motivations: The author speculates her stance is influenced by:
• Uganda's close ties with Israel, including military cooperation and economic investments.
• The influence of US-based evangelical churches in Uganda, who support Israel for religious reasons.
• Public opinion: Public opinion in East Africa on the conflict is divided, with Muslims generally supporting Palestine and some Christians favoring Israel.

Article

A furious debate is raging over the ICJ ruling against Israel, and whether it falls short of expectations by not explicitly calling for a ceasefire; certainly, it seems that most Palestinians who are facing the daily depredations of a genocidal Israel and its Western partners in crime have called the ruling unsatisfactory to say the least.

Leaving the nuances of the judgement for wiser minds to speak on, what was curious to me and many others was the sole judge who ruled against every single provision, including that of providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, something that even the Israeli-origin ICJ judge did not.

That judge was Julia Sebutinde of Uganda, the first female African judge to sit in the ICJ. In her dissenting opinion, she ruled that the “dispute” between Israel and the Palestinians was primarily a “historical and political” one and thus beyond the jurisdiction of the court, an opinion with which the bulk of the other judges disagreed. She went so far as to say that Israel’s massacres were not “committed with the necessary genocidal intent”, which leads one to believe that the worthy judge is willfully deaf and dumb and hadn’t seen a single statement from Israel’s leaders or even the TikTok videos posted by Israeli occupation forces.

What could possibly explain this? Before going into that, one must note that — while all courts are political to one extent or the other — this is particularly true of the ICJ, and the judges that sit there are, to varying degrees, influenced by not just personal ideology but also the prevailing political situations, and foreign policy planks, of their home countries.

One judge said that Israel did not act with genocidal intent.

Uganda has had turbulent relations with Israel over the years; during the bloody reign of Idi Amin, ties with Israel were broken off and in 1976 a passenger plane going from Tel Aviv to Paris was hijacked and brought to Uganda’s Entebbe airport, an action supported by Amin. Then followed the Entebbe raid by Israeli commandoes, which led to the rescue of 102 hostages. Kenya provided support for the operation; in retaliation for the humiliation he suffered, Idi Amin ordered his army to massacre Kenyans living in Uganda, killing close to 300, and forcing thousands to flee.

From this low point, Ugandan relations with Israel improved and have reached their zenith under the current president, the autocratic Yoveni Museveni, who restored full ties in 1994. Today, Israel has a considerable footprint in Uganda and Israeli companies operate in the fields of construction, communications, IT and agriculture, to name just a few. There is also considerable military cooperation between the two countries.

Public opinion in East Africa regarding the Israel-Palestinian conflict has historically been divided along religious lines, and generally speaking Muslims in this region tend to be supportive of Palestine while certain Christian churches (more on this later) have tended to favour Israel. Attacks by Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda affiliates in Kenya in particular, have also polarised and coloured views when it comes to Hamas and Palestine.

Michael Bishku, a professor of Middle Eastern and African history points out that in East African countries that possess a relatively democratic character, like Kenya and Tanzania, public opinion does tend to inform the stances taken by government. In the case of Kenya, President William Ruto initially strongly condemned Hamas, but later modified his tone by also condemning Israeli occupation and calling for a free Palestine. Even in autocratic Uganda, where public opinion counts for less, we have seen the government take pains to establish that Sebtinde’s ruling does not represent their official position.

One cannot gla­nce into Sebtinde’s mind and discern her motivations, but given her appr­oach one can somewhat safely assume that there is another factor in play when it comes to her blind support of Israel, and this is the increasing role of US-based evangelical churches in East Africa.

Over the years, these churches have poured millions of dollars into these largely impoverished countries, seducing people with their ‘prosperity doctrine’ which “links faith in God to financial success”. A decade ago, it was estimated that 30 per cent of Uganda’s Christians (who form 85pc of the population overall) had joined evangelical movements and that number is likely far higher now. All these groups, minor doctrinal difference notwithstanding, are fanatical Christian Zionists who believe that the messiah will not return until the Temple of Solomon has been rebuilt and that Israel’s absolute victory is a perquisite for that. After that, of course, all the Jews will be slaughtered or converted to the ‘true faith’ but for now, these groups are tactically allied to the Zionist regime.

Manchurian candidates

Summary

• The year 2024 is significant for democracy, with over four billion people voting in elections across 70 countries.
• Democracy is facing challenges, with a global decline in its quality, termed as a 'democratic recession.'
• The V-dem Institute's latest Democracy Report indicates a rollback of democracy to 1986 levels, highlighting negative changes in freedom of expression, media censorship, civil society repression, and election quality.
• The historical context suggests that capitalism and democracy were initially aligned for mutual benefit, but in unequal societies, the balance tilted in favor of capitalism.
• The interplay between capitalism and democracy is strained, with populists acting as modern-day Manchurian candidates, potentially undermining democracy.
• In the US, the 'Citizens United vs Federal Election Commission' decision allows unlimited corporate spending on elections, impacting government policies influenced by special interests.
• The global economy is facing its weakest growth in 30 years, and populists are blaming democracy for economic disparities rather than scrutinizing capitalism.
• Key elections in 2024, particularly in the US and India, could have significant consequences for democracy.
• Donald Trump's potential return to the White House may threaten civil rights, religious freedom, and freedom of speech, with economic consequences like import tariffs and potential withdrawal from NATO.
• In India, Narendra Modi's populist approach is criticized for capitalizing on economic insecurities, raising concerns about the dismantling of Indian democracy.
• Despite challenges, the article suggests hope that an evolved relationship between capitalism and democracy may find a new equilibrium with people power, provided voters can identify and resist populist influences.

Article

The Manchurian Candidate (1962) starring Frank Sinatra, Janet Leigh and Angela Lansbury — of Murder She Wrote fame — was one of the most iconic films of the Cold War era. Building on anti-communist paranoia, the story centres on Captain Shaw, a scion of a prominent political family, who is captured and brainwashed by communists during the Korean War. Shaw’s mother, the real puppet master, plans to use Shaw to carry out the assassination of the leading candidate in the elections so that communists can get their candidate — Manchurian candidate — to the White House with “...powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy”.

Though there was a remake of the film in 2004, its main message was buried by the sands of time. But, as more than half of the world’s population votes this year, the film’s themes centred on the fraught nature of democracy — political conspiracies, special interest and violence — remain as relevant today as during the height of the Cold War.

2024 is truly the ‘year of democracy’ as more than four billion people — including from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the US and UK comprising eight out of the 10 most populous nations — in over 70 countries will vote in elections. But, where this milestone should be celebrated, democracy appears to be in serious trouble.

For starters, the quality of democracy is plummeting almost everywhere. Most democracies are now suffering from democratic backsliding or a ‘democratic recession’, a term coined by Larry Diamond, a Stanford University professor.

Most democracies are now suffering from a ‘democratic recession’.

According to the latest Democracy Report by the V-dem Institute, advances made in democracy over the last 35 years have been wiped out and the level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen is down to 1986 levels. Specifically, drastic negative changes are taking place in freedom of expression, government censorship of media, government repression of civil society and in the quality of elections — many of which will have no meaningful policy impact.

In order to understand how we got here we are going to have to take a historical detour. Charles Tilly, an American academic, explained that the need to pay for pre-modern war forced state formation; a mechanism largely for extraction — conscription and taxation. In societies where capitalism was already entrenched, capitalists and merchants entered into a marriage of convenience with the state by enshrining democracy. They did so to protect their economic gains from state predation as democracy offered the best protection by allowing the people a say in the formation of extractive policies.

In unequal societies, however, the marriage of convenience between capitalism and democracy was not a marriage of equals; it remained tilted in favour of capitalism. Thomas Piketty pointed out how in the case of Sweden, money could literally buy political influence, albeit with some restrictions. But, once capitalism was no longer in the ring against another economic system in the post-Soviet era, capitalist elites, apparently, activated populists — or modern-day Manchurian candidates—for capturing democracy, the very system that had earlier generated protection for them, so as to close the door on redistributive taxation, forever.

At least in the case of the US, the best example of capitalism’s encirclement of democracy is evident in ‘Citizens United vs Federal Election Commission’ (2010), a controversial decision from the US supreme court that reversed century-old campaign finance restrictions enabling corporations and other groups to spend unlimited funds on elections.

Where government policies are increasingly being influenced by special interests impacting democracy’s quality, the global economic growth engine is also stalling. According to the World Bank, the global economy is poised for its weakest half-decade growth in 30 years. But, instead of placing capitalism on the chopping block, populists have turned the heat on democracy by claiming that it provides a disproportionate share of the economic pie to immigrants and minorities.

This cat-and-mouse game between capitalism and democracy will be played out in many countries this year. However, none of these elections have the potential to subvert democracy like in the US, where Donald Trump will likely be pitted against President Joe Biden, an unpopular and ageing candidate.

Once back in the White House, analysts argue, Donald Trump may weaponise the US Justice Department to go against political opponents. Civil rights, religious freedom as well as freedom of speech could all come under strain as Trump’s legal supporters are already developing procedural rationales like the unitary executive theory that may assist in bypassing various checks and balances in the US political system.

Given Trump’s protectionist ideas, Trump’s second term could prove disastrous for economic growth, especially if he decides to slap import tariffs on China and Europe. Additionally, if Trump’s foreign policy pronouncements are to be believed, the US could withdraw from Nato, leaving the field open for other hegemons. Indeed, some have likened Trump to a modern-day Manchurian candidate given his apparent paranoia of US intelligence agencies, while exhibiting trust in foreign governments.

In India, where the BJP’s win in the 2024 elections is “almost an inevitability”, Narendra Modi, another populist, has been capitalising on economic insecurities in the run-up to elections. Despite a high economic growth, the Indian economy has failed to create enough jobs — the unemployment rate has exceeded 10 per cent for the first time since the pandemic. Ramachandra Guha, an Indian historian, believes that if left unchallenged, the Modi regime “may come to be remembered … for its dismantling of Indian democracy”.

Democracy is increasingly appearing weak in the age of unbridled capitalism and populism. Will capitalism finally win by delivering a coup de grâce? The short answer is that all is not lost, at least not yet. Where the relationship between capitalism and democracy has evolved, with the former coming to dominate the latter, capitalism, too, will also face evolutionary pressure to settle on a new equilibrium with people power. Of course, this idea is based on a hope and a prayer that the voting publics will identify the populists for the Manchurian candidates that they really are.

Continuing crisis

Summary

Human Development in Sindh:

• Low human development: Sindh province already had low human development indicators before the 2022 floods, with high poverty rates, poor infrastructure, and inadequate access to essential services like healthcare and education.
• Floods worsened the situation: The 2022 floods significantly damaged infrastructure like houses, schools, and health facilities, further impacting human development.
• Specific areas: Rural areas and districts like Umerkot and Tharparkar were particularly affected, with over 80% of the population facing multidimensional poverty.

Impact of Floods:

• Infrastructure damage: Over 2 million houses, 20,000 schools, and 1,000 health facilities were damaged or destroyed.
• Disrupted services: Essential services like water supply, sanitation, and healthcare were disrupted, affecting pregnant women, children, and vulnerable populations.
• Data gap: The full impact on human development, like changes in education levels or health outcomes, is not yet fully understood.

Needs and Recommendations:

• Comprehensive study: A comprehensive study is needed to assess the full impact of the floods on human development.
• Development strategy: Sindh needs a clear strategy, resources, and monitoring mechanisms to improve human development indicators.

Additional notes:

• The article criticizes the lack of attention to the human development aspects of the post-flood response.
• It highlights the need for long-term solutions to address the underlying issues that contribute to low human development in Sindh.

Article

Human development is the inevitable casualty of natural disasters. The devastating blow to the health, education, drinking water, sanitation and housing infrastructure deprives people of services which constitute the pillars of human development. Pakistan, already on the lower rungs of human development, suffered a massive setback on account of the 2022 floods. The Planning Commission’s Post Disaster Need Assessment report paints a bleak picture: its preliminary estimates show that between 8.4 and 9.1 million people are likely to be pushed into poverty and an additional 1.9m households into non-monetary poverty.

Sindh was the worst-affected province in the floods. Approximately 70 per cent of the countrywide damage occurred in that province. The Sindhi Association of North America recently organised a daylong conference in Karachi. The state of human development in Sindh came under the scrutiny of development sector experts, government officials and civil society professionals. Compelling facts on various sectors of human development were presented at the conference. It was revealed in one session how the flood aggravated the ordeal of over 12m people in the province.

Even before the floods lashed Sindh, human development indices were dismal. Accumulated neglect, plunder and poor governance of decades had already bruised Sindh’s human development landscape. The floods further damaged the rickety infrastructure as well as aggravated poverty and poor management, which contributed to the catastrophic outcome. Weak human development indicators render people more vulnerable. Stronger human development gives resilience so that they can absorb some of the consequences of climate shocks.

Some pre-flood reports capturing the different dimensions of human development in Sindh are eye-openers. A 2016 UNDP report made a startling revelation that 75.5pc of the population of rural Sindh confronted multidimensional poverty. Rural Punjab and KP fared better with 43.7pc and 57.8pc.

The floods further damaged Sindh’s rickety infrastructure.

Some of the districts of Sindh appeared to be in a specially distressing situation. In Umerkot and Tharparkar, 84.7pc and 87pc of the population respectively were victims of multidimensional poverty. The annual report of the Sindh Bureau of Statistics revealed that in 2017 some 60pc of houses in rural Sindh were kaccha (ie, constructed of crude material). The rural areas of Badin, Jacobabad and Mirpurkhas had 80pc, 72pc and 71pc kaccha houses respectively. The Sindh Education Profile-2019, an official report of the Sindh Education and Literacy Department, admitted that 16pc of schools in the province were without buildings, 40pc had no toilets, 45pc were deprived of boundary walls and 53pc lacked drinking water facilities. The situation in the health sector services was equally piteous.

According to the Project Appraisal Document of the World Bank-supported Sindh Integrated Health and Population Project, Sindh had a higher level of pregnancy-related deaths (345 per 100,000 live births) and the maternal mortality rate (224 per 100,000 live births) compared to Punjab and KP. Sindh had an appalling under-five mortality rate of 77 per 1,000 births. This is a summary of the inglorious state of human development in Sindh before the floods.

This ignominious situation worsened when the floods of 2022 catapulted 24 districts of Sindh into disaster zone. They damaged or destroyed over 2m houses, 20,000 school buildings and 1,000 health facilities as well as rendered over 5,000 water supply and sanitation schemes dysfunctional. This infrastructure is pivotal for essential services that have a direct impact on our human development status.

So far, only figures for damaged infrastructure and financial requi­r­e­m­ents for reh­a­bilitation are available. The human development dimensions of the floods have not yet been delved into. For example, the number of pregnant women in the flood-affected areas was estimated to be between 350,000 and 650,000 by different sources. However, no study is available to tells us about how many of them safely delivered their babies and how many succumbed to their terrible situation. People commonly complain of groundwater contamination due to stagnant water ponds but no research has been conducted to gauge the post-flood quality of the water and its health repercussions. Similarly, learning levels of students without school buildings have not yet been assessed.

The impact of the flood on Sindh’s human development indicators needs an all-encompassing study to establish how the meagre gains of recent decades have been reversed. Sindh needs a strategy, allocation and effective utilisation of financial resources as well as a mechanism to regularly monitor progress on key human development indicators in the province.

More of the same?

Summary

• The upcoming general election has both similarities and departures from past polls.
• Similarities include the same parties, political figures, and the establishment's role.
• Departures involve a severe economic crisis, intense polarization, and a subdued election campaign atmosphere.
• The economic crisis has led to a cost-of-living crisis, rising unemployment, and increased poverty, impacting public discontent.
• Unprecedented polarization is dividing society along intensely partisan lines, reducing tolerance for political opponents.
• The election campaign is subdued, lacking the usual festive atmosphere and public fervor.
• Social media plays a greater role in this election, with PTI's digital media team utilizing platforms like X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube.
• Record numbers of independent candidates are contesting, comprising over 60% of candidates for the Lower House and twice the number of party candidates for provincial assemblies.
• The youth bulge among voters, with almost 57 million young voters (44% of the electorate), could be a game-changer, especially if they have strong preferences and are influenced by social media narratives.
• The combination of these factors introduces uncertainty and unpredictability into the electoral outcome despite conventional wisdom suggesting otherwise.

Article

Is the general election this time any different from previous ones? Or is it more of the same? There are several significant similarities with past polls. The same parties are contesting — some reincarnations of older ones while others cobbled together by defectors from another party.

They are led by the same political figures. Many contestants running as independents are familiar names. The establishment’s ubiquitous role is no different from the past. Its interventions to limit the electoral chances of one political party mimics the past; this time it is PTI; in the last election it was PML-N. The issueless character of the election campaign is also not new.

But there are also several departures from the past which have been obscured in much of the commentary about the elections. For a start, the polls are taking place against the backdrop of the most serious economic crisis the country has ever faced. This itself is distinct from the past as it has involved far-reaching repercussions for people, in the form of a cost-of-living crisis, rising unemployment and increased poverty.

This has come on the back of continuing power shortages across the country with gas ‘load-shedding’ being even more frequent this winter season. These are all drivers of public discontent. It is yet to be seen how this will manifest itself at the ballot box and who voters will attribute their economic plight to.

A second difference is the intensely polarised atmosphere in which the election is taking place. Polarised politics is of course not new. But the extent of polarisation today is unprecedented, dividing people and society along intensely partisan lines. There is much less tolerance than in the past for political opponents, while a toxic quality has been injected into the political conversation and debased what passes for debate.

Three, and perhaps the most visible break from the past, is the subdued nature of the election campaign that is in progress. This is somewhat paradoxical, given the deep polarisation in the country. But it is partially explained by the restrictions placed on one of the parties. Missing is the festive atmosphere and public fervour that usually characterises the run-up to elections.

This is also reflected in one of the findings of the most current public opinion survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan this month, in which 44 per cent of Pakistanis said they had not seen any banners, flags or posters of political parties in their neighbourhoods and localities. The survey also found that only one in five Pakistanis said they have been canvassed by party candidates, members or activists in door-to-door efforts to seek votes for their party.

The media too has been commenting that this is the most lacklustre election campaign in the country’s recent history. The fact that it is mostly devoid of policy issues however marks a continuity with the past. Two of the three major parties announced their manifestos less than two weeks before the election giving little time for meaningful debate on their respective programmes.

Several factors inject unpredictability into the electoral outcome.

Four, the greater role of social media in this election is arguably the most important distinction from the past. Its impact will be tested on polling day but for now it is being deployed by all major political parties with PTI’s digital media team being ahead of the game.

In fact, the undeclared curbs placed on the party, and being deprived of its election symbol by the Election Commission of Pakistan, forced it to resort even more to social media tools — X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube — as well as AI-driven chatbot to reach supporters and the public at large. The party has also used AI-generated speeches and an article in The Economist by Imran Khan. It has sought to hold virtual ‘rallies’ and fundraisers via online platforms.

In response to these digital efforts, the authorities began to shut down social media from time to time and orchestrated internet ‘outages’ that they ascribed to technical reasons. Whether social media electioneering will make a significant difference to voting behaviour — and turnout — will be clear on polling day, but its greater use is certainly a ‘first’.

The fifth difference from past elections is the record number of independents contesting the election both for national and provincial assemblies — the highest in Pakistan’s electoral history. The number of independents in the contest for 266 general NA seats is 3,205. That’s over 60pc of candidates vying for seats in the Lower House.

For the provincial assemblies 8,341 independent aspirants are in the run, which is twice the number of candidates fielded by political parties. These figures include PTI-affiliated candidates as they are unable to contest as party candidates by the loss of their election symbol; there being no PTI name or symbol on the ballot paper.

This could be consequential for government formation later especially as no party is expected to win an overall majority and will need allies for a coalition government. Independent candidates can join another party without any legal constraint and of course be enlisted to be part of a coalition arrangement.

The higher number of young voters is another distinguishing factor. The youth bulge among voters obviously reflects the youthful structure of the country’s population. Young voters have increased to almost 57 million now from 46.43m 2018. That’s over 44pc of the electorate.

If they come out in large numbers to vote they could be a game changer in shaping the outcome, especially if they have a strong preference for a particular party. Being tech-savvy, younger voters are also more likely to be influenced by narratives of the political party that is adept at using social media tools.

When taken together, all these factors inject a degree of uncertainty and unpredictability into the electoral outcome. This despite the conventional wisdom that the result can easily be forecast and is in fact already known.