Iran's Space Program: A Cover for ICBM testing?

 

Iran's Space Program: A Cover for ICBM testing?

In recent months, Iran has been launching a large amount of satellites into space, using several different SLV (Satellite Launch Vehicle) rockets.

One of these SLVs in particular, the Qaem-100, a three-stage solid-fuel rocket, looks and functions very similar to an ICBM in development, especially after its recent modifications.

When Qaem-100 was revealed in 2022, as well as the version that was used while unsuccessfully launching the 'Nahid' satellite in 2023, it had a rounded tip. Additionally, the rocket also featured roll-control thrusters. 

In Qaem-100's new launch, which took place two days ago while successfully putting the 'Soraya' satellite into 750km orbit, we can see that there have been modifications to the rocket.

Firstly, the tip of the rocket has become sharpened. This is typical in the design of long range missiles such as ICBMs. Second, the liquid-fuel roll thrusters have been omitted, to improve the missile's shelf life and decrease maintenance. Lastly, four stabilizing fins have been added, a common feature found in ICBMs.

While Iran has always been interested in expanding its space program for scientific and civilian purposes, it is likely that the launch of SLVs, in particular the Qaem-100, are a cover for testing a preliminary ICBM model.

This, in combination with Iran doubling its production of highly enriched U-235 uranium to 9kg a month, poses a real challenge to Israel and the United States, who now have to deal with Iran being a latent nuclear power.