The Press Roundup

January 13, 2024 (Saturday)

Curated Summary

Six big questions about US-led strikes against the Houthis, answered (Atlantic Council)

• The US-led strikes in Yemen on January 11 were a response to the Houthis' attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. The strikes were seen as a necessary act of self-defense to protect freedom of navigation.
• The US government has justified its military actions in the Red Sea based on the objective of defending freedom of navigation, as outlined in the Biden-Harris National Security Strategy and previous administrations' national security strategies.
• 1. Will striking Houthi military assets result in further military escalation in the Red Sea and the region?
• US strikes may not stop Houthi attacks altogether, but: they could hinder their ability to attack for longer or inflict more damage; and discourage future attacks by depleting Houthi weapons. Strikes aim to limit Houthi capabilities without triggering a wider war, similar to Hezbollah's approach.
• 2. Do the US-led strikes jeopardize the fragile UN-led Saudi Arabia-Houthi talks?
• US strikes against Houthis won't sabotage peace talks as Houthis have alreadt shown lack of commitment to negotiations. Concisely, the strikes are seen as addressing a separate issue (Houthi attacks on shipping) and not harming the ongoing peace efforts.
• 3.  Will the US-led strikes strengthen the Houthis in Yemen or abroad?
• Houthi support for Palestinians gains them praise, but unlikely to boost domestic popularity in Yemen. Global appeal of Houthis limited compared to past militant groups; unlike al-Qaeda or ISIS, Houthis lack a universal religious message or global vision.
• 4. Will the US-led strikes provoke Iran?
• Iran has no reason to highlight its link to Houthis or conflict right now.
• 5. Will the US-led strikes create reputational risk for the US on the international stage?
• The multilateral approach (multiple countries in Operation Prosperity Guardian) to the strikes in the Red Sea is designed to protect the US reputation. By working with partners, the US can avoid accusations of unilateralism.
• 6. Will the US-led strikes harm Biden’s domestic political standing?
• Biden faces significant political opposition to the strikes, primarily from within his own party. Concerns include mirroring the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, potential further decline in poll numbers, and expanding US involvement in Yemen. Some members of Congress fear the strikes could lead to a wider and more expensive war in the region.

Pakistan elevated defense capabilities with successful air defense system trial (Samaa)

• Pakistan has achieved a significant breakthrough in enhancing its defense capabilities, making its defense system robust and formidable.
• The successful trial of the Air Defense's High-Medium Weapon System is a critical advancement in Pakistan's military capabilities.
• General Syed Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff, personally witnessed the demonstration of the Air Defense Weapon System and commended the precision and operational readiness displayed by the Corps of Army Air Defense during Exercise Al-Bayza-III, 2024.
• Lieutenant General Zafar Iqbal has been appointed as the Colonel Commandant of the Army Air Defense Corps, reflecting the leadership's trust in his capabilities to contribute to ongoing advancements in the defense infrastructure.

What Britain's defence deal with Ukraine means for the war (The Spectator)

• During his visit to Kiev, Rishi Sunak brought Ukrainians two pieces of good news - £2.5bn ($3.2bn) in military aid and the signing of a bilateral security treaty. Ukraine will not be able to join NATO anytime soon, so Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to find an alternative - separate deals with allies. The first one was the UK.
• Under the treaty, the British side will provide intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, as well as cooperation in the defence industry. After the end of the military conflict, if Ukraine is again threatened by Russia, the UK pledges to provide "rapid and sustained" assistance.
• The Ukrainian government is negotiating similar agreements with 30 other countries. The agreement is for ten years and can be extended. If Ukraine joins NATO before the end of the agreement, security commitments will be taken over by NATO. 

The regional war no one wanted is here. How wide will it get? (The New York Times)

• Since the war between Israel and Hamas began, nearly 100 days ago, President Biden and his aides have tried to contain the escalation. After the U.S. and allied strikes on Yemen, the question of whether there will be a regional conflict is no longer an issue. The biggest questions now are its intensity and whether the spread can be contained. This is exactly the outcome no one wanted, including, presumably, Iran.
•  “We’re not interested in a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind,” John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on Friday. “In fact, everything the president has been doing has been trying to prevent any escalation of conflict, including the strikes last night.”
•  For 12 weeks, attacks by Lebanon, Iraq and Syria against ships from various countries, U.S. military bases, and Israeli territory have continued, all prompting modest, carefully crafted responses by U.S. and Israeli forces. The U.S. issued a warning to Iran, which the Americans believe is the focal point. What is remarkable about the retaliatory strike on Yemen? Its sheer scale. Using fighter jets and sea-based missiles, the U.S. and Britain struck a large number of Houthi targets.
•  Biden's decision to launch airstrikes is a clear change of strategy. "This is already a regional war that is no longer confined to the Gaza Strip but has spread to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen," said Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
• Joe Biden walks a fine line between containment and escalation, and his aides recognise there is no logic in this strategy. Tehran and its allies, including Lebanon's Hezbollah, are cautiously supporting Hamas to prevent a larger American military response that could jeopardise Tehran's power in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. But how much control Iran has over its proxies remains in question, and furthermore, its leaders may also be misreading American and Israeli red lines.

Taiwan begins counting votes in pivotal election as China looms large (Financial Times)

•  China says Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force if the island refuses to unify indefinitely. On the eve of the election, the People's Liberation Army warned that it is "always on high alert [to] suppress separatist plots to achieve Taiwan's independence."
• Lai Tsingde, a Democratic Progressive Party candidate whom Beijing has labelled a dangerous separatist, was the frontrunner in the election race. He favours Taiwan's independence from the mainland and close cooperation with Western partners. Lai is competing with Hou Yui, a Kuomintang Party candidate who sees Taiwan as part of a more Chinese nation but disagrees with Beijing over which state represents it. The third presidential candidate is Ke Wen-je, the founder of the Taiwan People's Party, which targets wavering voters.
• While many Taiwanese citizens are tired of the ideological rhetoric and have said they want the new government to revitalise the economy, the candidates have called the election a matter of national survival in their recent speeches.
• "In the past eight years, we have refused to short-circuit China and bow to authoritarianism. This proves that we hold our destiny in our own hands," Lai said at a mass rally the previous day.
• At a rival Kuomintang event, Hou told his supporters, "Lai Qingde is leading us down the path of war, Hou Yui is leading us down the path of peace!" He accused the DPP government of corruption and pledged to continue dialogue with China to reduce tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
• Ke Wen-je was the only one of the three to detail his policy programme, promising tax reform and dramatic increases in spending on health care, public housing and rent subsidies.
• The world's attention is focused on whether the DPP can become the first party in Taiwan's democratic history to hold power for longer than two terms. Some observers fear this scenario could increase tensions between the two sides of the Strait.

EU to debate sending a naval mission (Business Recorder)

• EU countries will discuss next week a plan to set up a naval mission to help protect Red Sea shipping following attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, diplomats said Friday.
• Any EU effort would seek to complement a US-led coalition, which includes numerous countries from the bloc that is already operating in the vital shipping route.
• The details of the size and scope of any EU mission remain to be hammered out and European diplomats said a first discussion would take place in Brussels on Tuesday.

Pakistan navy's maiden exercise Sea Guard concludes today (Pakistan Observer)

• Three-day Pakistan Navy’s maiden Exercise Sea Guard concludes today at Karachi.
• The exercise is aimed at enhancing interoperability and showcasing shared resolve for ensuring robust coastal security.

Iran, Pakistan to hold naval drill at Hormuz Strait (MEHR News Agency)

• The Pakistani flotilla, comprising the Madadgar warship and Zhob maritime security vessel, has berthed at Bandar Abbas to convey the message of peace and friendship.
• The expansion of friendly ties between the two Muslim neighbors and the promotion of cooperation in the naval training field are among the other purposes of the Pakistani flotilla’s three-day visit to Iran.
• The naval forces of the two countries are going to stage a joint combat exercise in the Persian Gulf waters near the Strait of Hormuz.

India strongly objects British envoy's visit to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (The Week)

• India strongly protested the visit of the British High Commissioner to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, considering it an infringement on its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• The Ministry of External Affairs stated that such infringement is unacceptable and registered a strong protest with the UK's High Commissioner in India.
• The Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are an integral part of India, according to the ministry.
• Jane Marriot, the British High Commissioner to Pakistan, visited Mirpur in occupied Kashmir on January 10.
• Mirpur, along with its adjoining districts of Bhimber and Kotli, is home to a significant number of dual nationals, constituting around 70% of the British Pakistani-Kashmiri diaspora.