World in Brief - The Economist Roundup

 

World in Brief

The Economist Roundup

Donald Trump won New Hampshire’s Republican primary, defeating Nikki Haley, who had hoped for a strong showing in the independent-minded state. The final polls closed at 8pm, precisely when the Associated Press projected Mr Trump the victor. A Trump-Biden rematch looks increasingly likely: the sitting president won the unofficial Democratic primary, despite not having appeared on the ballot.

Turkey’s parliament approved Sweden’s bid to join NATO, ending a years-long stand-off. Hungary, whose parliament is in recess until mid-February, must still ratify it. Sweden and Finland applied to join the defence bloc in May 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. After opposing both Nordic countries’ bids—accusing them of harbouring anti-Turkish terrorists—Turkey cleared Finland last March. Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orban, has invited Sweden to “negotiate” its accession; Sweden’s foreign minister countered with an offer for a “dialogue”.

 

America launched strikes on facilities in Iraq used by Iran-backed militias. Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary, said they were retaliation against “a series of escalatory attacks” carried out on Americans and allies in Iraq and Syria. One such attack, on the al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq on Saturday, left several American troops with traumatic brain injuries and wounded one Iraqi soldier.

 

Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, vowed not to stop fighting in Gaza until the country had secured “absolute victory”. Yesterday 24 soldiers were killed in fighting in southern Gaza, the biggest daily death toll since the war began in October. More than 25,000 people have been killed by Israeli forces in the war, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.

 

Seven people were killed and around 70 more hurt in Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s two largest cities, according to Ukrainian officials. A gas pipeline in Kharkiv was also damaged. Meanwhile Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, described peace plans backed by the West as “a road to nowhere” at the UN Security Council in New York.

 

The World Health Organisation warned of an “alarming” increase in measles cases in Europe in 2023. About 42,200 people contracted measles last year compared to 941 in 2022. It put about 21,000 in hospital and led to five deaths. The WHO blames a lack of vaccination; first-dose rates dropped from 96% before the pandemic to 93% in 2022.

 

Electronic Warfare over the Baltic Sea

Since mid-December pilots flying over the Baltic Sea have been reporting that their GPS systems, which they use to navigate, have ceased to function properly. At one point the outages were happening over two-thirds of northern Poland. The cause appears to have been GPS jamming—but by whom?

Open-source analysts examining flight data concluded that the tampering probably originated in Denmark, Poland or the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Experts now say that the culprit could be a secretive Russian electronic-warfare station in Kaliningrad known as Tobol, which was set up to interfere with satellites.

It is not the first time this has happened. Pilots in Bulgaria and Lithuania reported problems with their GPS last summer. The latest episode may be linked to the largest NATO exercise in decades, known as Steadfast Defender, which began this week and runs until May. If so, Russia’s apparent electronic war on NATO’s northern flank may ramp up in the weeks ahead.

Malaysia’s monetary balancing act

Financial markets pay obsessive attention to America’s Federal Reserve. Asian central bankers do the same. Their economies depend on global trade, much of it invoiced in dollars. They fret if their currencies rise or fall too far against the greenback. And so they do not like to loosen monetary policy unless the Fed is doing the same. If the Fed does cut interest rates in 2024, as markets now expect, many Asian central banks will follow suit before the year is over.

One exception is Malaysia. On Wednesday its central bank is expected to decide to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2024. It worries that upcoming cuts in food and fuel subsidies, and an increase in the sales tax, will boost inflation. Asian central banks must keep an eye on the Fed’s governors. But they cannot ignore their own governments either.

Europe’s economic security

The European Union is trying to become a more forceful geopolitical player. That is not what it was set up for. The rules-based bloc was created to overcome political rivalry among states through openness and trade. It is now trying to consider national security (which is not in its remit), help play power politics on the global stage and regulate trade and investment with external countries. On Wednesday the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will publish a range of white papers and recommendations.

The most specific is a proposal to upgrade the EU’s existing toolbox to screen inflows of investment. Although the EU has no formal power to decide whether foreign investors can buy, say, a German port, other members can express views, since such a transaction affects collective security. The commission now wants to close loopholes to ensure that all members have a screening process in place and make them more accountable to each other. The white papers mostly serve as a basis for further discussions. To reach decisions, the EU’s 27 individual members will have to agree.

The fightback against Javier Milei

Argentina’s largest trade union, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), is expected to stage a national strike this Wednesday in opposition to an “omnibus” bill presented to Congress by Javier Milei, the president. The draft legislation would declare a “public emergency” in response to soaring inflation. It would give the government powers normally reserved for Congress and would pave the way for the privatisation of more than 40 state companies.

No other Argentine president has faced a national strike so early in his term. On Monday the government modified the bill to improve its chances of passage through Congress. It would now give the president exceptional powers for just one year, instead of granting them until the end of 2025. An oil company is no longer on the privatisation list. But the government did not change a recent security decree that increases penalties for protesters who block roads. That threat has not deterred the CGT.

A new Netflix mini-series about a narca

If the Netflix series “Narcos” is anything to go by, viewers can’t get enough of the antics of drug barons. Joining the repertoire this week is “Griselda”, a Netflix mini-series about the “godmother of cocaine”. The six episodes tell the true story of Griselda Blanco, a Colombian, who after leaving Medellín established a cocaine-selling operation in Miami. At the peak of the business in the 1980s Blanco is said to have overseen the import of 1.5 tonnes per month.

The series has the same slick feel as “Narcos”: many of the team that made the older series worked on the new one. Sofia Vergara is excellent as the titular character. “Griselda” gives viewers a glimpse of the lives of women involved in the drug trade beyond the wives and girlfriends of famous drug lords. It also shows that women can be as violent as men. Blanco murdered three of her husbands. She was said to be the only woman feared by Pablo Escobar.