World in Brief - The Economist Roundup

 World in Brief

The Economist Roundup

Three American soldiers were killed, and 34 more were injured, in a drone attack on a base in Jordan, near the border with Syria. President Joe Biden blamed “radical Iran-backed militant groups”, and promised to hold the people responsible to account. These are the first deaths in conflict of American soldiers in the Middle East since Israel’s war in Gaza began in October; in the months since ten other countries have been dragged into fighting in the region.

 

The UN’s secretary-general, António Guterres, urged countries which have paused funding for UNRWA, its agency for Palestinian refugees, to reconsider, and vowed to “hold to account” any staff found to have been involved in Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7th. The UN’s special rapporteur on the Palestinian Territories accused the nine Western countries, which include America and Germany, of “collectively punishing” civilians in Gaza. Representatives of Iran, Jordan and Turkey also criticised the move.

 

Negotiators are meeting in Paris to discuss a proposed deal, drawn up by American officials, which would pause Israel’s offensive in Gaza for two months and see the phased return of the 130 hostages still held by Hamas. William Burns, a former diplomat who is now the director of the CIA, will represent the Biden administration in talks with Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

 

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc. The countries called sanctions placed on them in response to coups that have taken place since 2020 “inhumane”, and accused ECOWAS of becoming “a threat to its member states”. Their withdrawal will raise fears that the region, already plagued by conflict and jihadist violence, will become even more volatile.

 

Russian missiles and drones struck civilian and infrastructure targets across Ukraine on Sunday. On Saturday Ukraine’s security service announced that it is investigating officials in the ministry of defence and staff at an arms manufacturer accused of stealing $40m, which should have been spent on mortar shells. In September President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced his defence minister following months of corruption scandals in his department.

 

Icon of the Seas, the world’s largest cruise ship, set sail from Miami on its maiden voyage, a tour of the Caribbean—amid controversy over its climate credentials. The ship, which can carry 7,600 passengers, is powered by liquified natural gas, which is cleaner than other fuels but risks leaking methane, a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

 

How will America retaliate against Iran?

Since October Iran-backed groups have fired drones and rockets at American outposts across the Middle East 160 times. Almost all have missed or been shot down. On Sunday one got through, killing three American soldiers. The incident piles pressure on President Joe Biden to retaliate.

Mr Biden said that “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” were responsible. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has supported armed groups in both countries, many of which operate under the umbrella of a so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and some of which have been absorbed into Iraq’s armed forces.

An American military response appears inevitable. But while modest reprisals may appear inadequate, heavy retaliation could cause other problems. The attack comes as America and its allies are attempting to negotiate a pause in the Israel-Hamas war and a hostage deal. An eruption of violence between America and Iran could quash hopes of restoring calm any time soon.

Tension between Iran and Pakistan

The 900km border between Iran and Pakistan has long been plagued by violence. Iran claims Sunni militants are given sanctuary in Pakistan, while Pakistan alleges Baloch separatists, who agitate for their own state, are housed in Iran. On January 16th Iranian missiles and drones killed two people in Pakistan’s Balochistan province; two days later retaliation by Pakistan killed nine alleged militants in Iran. The strikes were a major escalation.

In an effort to improve relations, on Monday Pakistan’s government will host Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad. Expect a mechanism for curbing cross-border militancy and improving intelligence sharing. But the diplomatic patch up could be tested by more violence. On Saturday nine Pakistani labourers were killed by gunmen, likely to be Baloch militants, in Saravan, an Iranian city near the border. The Pakistani government has also approved the deployment of troops for the “peaceful conduct” of elections being held on February 8th, potentially drawing troops away from border duties at an exceptionally tense time.

Vietnam and the Philippines unite against China

On Monday Ferdinand Marcos, the president of the Philippines, will arrive in Hanoi for talks with his Vietnamese counterpart, Vo Van Thuong. The Philippines and Vietnam are neighbours, forming the western and eastern shores of the South China Sea. And they make common cause in resisting efforts by China to enforce its claim to almost all the waters between them, and in pursuing their own maritime ambitions.

In conflicts over disputed waters in the South China Sea, the front lines are defended by coastguard cutters jostling, rather than warships exchanging gunfire. To strengthen their hand, the Philippine and Vietnamese coastguards have struck a co-operation agreement, to be signed while Mr Marcos is in Hanoi. The accord is far from being an alliance. But it is a clear sign that wherever in the western Pacific China is throwing its weight around, its neighbours are getting together to push back.