Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

 

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DAWN EDITORIALS

February 17, 2024 (Saturday)

Delay in election results

Summary

Problem:

• Election results in Pakistan were significantly delayed, raising concerns about manipulation.
• Deadlines for announcing results (2 am and 10 am) were not met by most Returning Officers (ROs).
• Discrepancies were reported between initial vote counts and consolidated results.

Possible Causes:

• Shutdown of mobile phone and internet services disrupted planned transmission of results.
• Mismanagement of logistics led to delays in delivering physical results to ROs.
• Possible intentional delay by some ROs for potential manipulation (unproven).

Consequences:

• Damaged credibility of election process and fueled accusations of manipulation.
• Negative perceptions due to lack of explanation for the delay.

Proposed Solutions:

• Investigate conduct of ROs to clarify if intentional delays occurred.
• Re-evaluate feasibility of strict result announcement deadlines.
• Consider alternative solutions like electronic voting machines, but their effectiveness in addressing these specific issues is questioned.

Article

ELECTIONS results are generally a contentious [causing or likely to cause an argument; controversial] affair in Pakistan. Although the first general election in 1970 is considered to have been relatively fair, there were many complaints about the high-handedness of the Awami League musclemen in what was then East Pakistan, while the Gen Yahya regime was accused of being supportive of Khan Abdul Qayyum Khan’s faction of Muslim League.

The perception about the lack of fairness has been clear in each of the preceding 11 elections. The 12th general election held on Feb 8 is no exception. Even the PTI, which supported independent candidates and emerged as the largest single group (if not a party because of the denial of its election symbol), is protesting against the election results. The PTI and almost all other political parties are up in arms against what they see as the large-scale manipulation of poll results. Most complaints centre around the alleged discrepancies between the vote count transmitted by the presiding officers on Form-45 and the consolidation of the polling station results in Form 47 at the returning officers’ office to obtain the constituency result. These allegations are serious but not established yet.

Although polling was generally orderly except for isolated reports of assault on some polling stations and the delayed arrival of polling staff, all hell broke loose when none of the 859 returning officers was able to announce the provisional results of his respective constituency by the deadline of 2 am the following day, in accordance with Section 13(3) of the Elections Act, 2017. Around 3 am, various TV channels telecasting live progressive polling station results based on their reporters’ dispatches, reported that the chief election commissioner had warned the ROs to announce provisional results in the next half an hour or face suspension. Neither were the results announced nor any action taken against the ROs in that period, suggesting possible defiance by them.

The same law required that if, for any reason, the results were incomplete by 2 am, the RO should communicate to the ECP the provisional results as consolidated till that time, along with reasons for the delay in writing, and send the complete provisional results as soon as compiled but no later than 10 am. Only a small fraction of the results was announced by even this deadline.

This delay became the subject of intense discussion during the marathon election transmissions telecast by almost all TV news channels. Some channels emphasised that if they, with the help of Forms 45 collected by their reporters, could announce the result of 25,000 polling stations, why were the ROs able to announce the results of only 10,000. This line of argument seriously damaged the credibility of the process of consolidation of results by the ROs.

Did the ROs intentionally delay the announcement of results, in order to facilitate any possible manipulation?

Since TV channels were giving progressive results, which indicated the winning or losing position of a candidate on the basis of, in some cases, the results of as few as 10 per cent polling stations by midnight when most viewers were up, a relatively complete result of a constituency presented a different candidate as the winner the next day, creating a perception that most results were manipulated overnight. On-going media discussions further fuelled the theory that the delay in announcing results was deliberate to manipulate the results.

These negative perceptions could have been effectively countered if a proper explanation for the delay was offered in time, but sadly, this did not happen.

Since the ECP had widely publicised its Election Management System and it was emphasised that it has been designed keeping in mind the lessons learnt from the infamous failure of the Result Transmission System in the 2018 election, people started drawing parallels between the fate of the two systems as soon as the news of delay started hitting the TV screens.

It is true that the shutdown of the mobile phone system and internet services played an important role in disrupting the plans to transmit polling station results to ROs through mobile phones, but such an eventuality could have been foreseen because the closure of mobile phone and internet services was being talked about for weeks before the election. In the absence of the transmission of polling station results by mobile phones, the presiding officers were supposed to personally carry the results to their respective RO office but this part of the logistics operation was grossly mismanaged.

Many presiding officers narrated stories of how they were prevented from leaving for the RO’s office until security staff was available to escort them. The availability of the security escort took hours in many cases, and as 200 to 300 presiding office converged on the RO’s office, it took a long time handing over the sensitive cargo to the concerned ROs. All these logistical challenges could have been easily foreseen and their mitigation planned because these operational issues are faced in each election.

Did the ROs intentionally delay the announcement of results, at least in some selected constituencies, in order to facilitate any possible manipulation? This will be the darkest blot [a dark mark or stain, typically one made by ink, paint, or dirt] on the electoral machinery even if such a thing happened in just a fraction of the constituencies. It will be only fair if the ECP undertakes serious inquest [a judicial inquiry to ascertain the facts relating to an incident] about the conduct of ROs.

Since results have been routinely delayed in several consecutive general elections including the one in 2018, and now in 2024, the incoming parliament must debate whether a deadline of 2 am and then 10 am to announce complete results is feasible.

President Arif Alvi also chose to comment on the delay, believing that electronic voting machines could have avoided this situation. EVMs could have certainly speeded up the counting at polling stations but the counting at the latter was hardly the problem. The problem was the transmission of results to the RO and the tabulation at the RO’s office. EVMs can hardly help in these operations.

A reform agenda

Summary

Pakistan faces major challenges:

• High inflation, budget deficit, energy issues, large debt, low exports.
• Poor human development indicators (infant mortality, fertility, education, poverty).
• Ineffective local government, bloated bureaucracy, slow courts, poor service delivery.

Proposed reforms:

• Population control: Urgent priority to manage resource strain.
• Fiscal reforms: Increase federal share of taxes, devolve taxing power to lower levels.
• Local government empowerment: Constitutional protection, devolved responsibilities, direct funding.
• SOE privatization: Start with PIA and PSM, expand to energy and oil sectors, streamline process.
• Reduce government footprint: Merge ministries, devolve functions, rely more on private sector.
• Direct cash transfers: Support poor citizens through BISP or similar programs.
• Education vouchers: Enable poor children to attend private schools.
• Legal reforms: Ensure predictable and timely court decisions.
• Civil service reforms: Specialization, merit-based promotions, performance-linked retirements.

Overall message:

• Urgent reforms needed to improve governance, economy, and human development.
• Failure to reform will lead to continued stagnation and hinder progress.

Article

THE incoming government will take over at a very challenging time.

On the fiscal side, we have inflation at more than 25 per cent, budgetary deficit at over 7pc of national income, energy costs and its frequent unavailability a millstone around the neck of industry and consumers, large foreign and local debt repayments that keep us close to the brink, and underwhelming exports.

In the human development area, we have one of the highest infant mortality and female fertility rates even among poor countries, 58pc of kids under five are stunted or wasted, 26 million (40pc) children are out of school, 8m-plus babies born every year for whom we neither have schools nor teachers, and worst of all, 39pc of our fellow citizens living in abject poverty.

In terms of governance, we have a totally ineffective local government system — the government tier that interacts most with people and is supposed to provide services — leaving our citizens without health, education and other basic services.

In fact, all areas of our governance are lacking in effective delivery. For instance, our state-owned enterprises (SOEs) lost around Rs700 billion last year, we have a bloated [(of part of the body) swollen with fluid or gas] bureaucracy where there is no consideration of merit, cases linger in courts unresolved for decades, and our police aren’t considered a service but a burden by the citizens.

All areas of our governance are lacking in effective delivery.

Given these persistent problems, here are some reforms the incoming government may undertake.

No other reform will succeed if we don’t urgently undertake population control. The 8m babies being born every year will overwhelm every plan and resource we can muster. Moreover, no economy can prosper if 40pc of its people remain poor and illiterate, and the literate remain undereducated and unskilled.

Next, we need to tackle government financing. After the seventh NFC award, about 63pc of all federal taxes go to the provinces (including AJK, GB and former Fata), leaving the provinces with plenty of cash but the federation with not enough money to even cover its interest payments.

The next NFC award must, gradually over five years, increase the share of the federation to 55pc and ask provinces, districts and divisions to also collect their own taxes. The idea that one government collects taxes and another gets to spend it is a recipe for fiscal indiscipline. Responsible federalism requires that not just authority to spend but responsibility to tax too is devolved.

Another reform should be constitutional local government empowerment that cannot be diluted at the whim of the provincial administration. This means education and health devolved to district or city level as appropriate, and police and infrastructure to the division and city level. It also means elected tehsil, district, city and division mayors who aren’t removed until a successor is elected. Most importantly, these entities should be given funds directly from the federal divisible pool, on a predetermined formula, and they need not depend on the largesse [generosity in bestowing money or gifts upon others] of the provincial administration alone.

Also on the agenda should be reduction of the government’s footprint. This would mean privatisation and robust regulation of all SOEs. It should start with PIA and PSM, already on the agenda, but must include all power and gas distribution and generation companies, and oil-producing and distribution companies. Necessary changes should be made in the law to allow for quicker privatisation (currently it requires at least 460 days to complete a transaction).

Our electricity and gas distribution companies are allowed profits on the totality of their assets, a formula which must be changed post-privatisation. The price these companies fetch will depend on what profits they are allowed post-privatisation.

The government needs to carefully think about the new profit formula and how to divide the surplus profit, after improvements in bill collection and transmission and distribution losses that should accrue [(of sums of money or benefits) be received by someone in regular or increasing amounts over time] after privatisation, between consumers and companies. The ultimate objective of this privatisation should be the establishment of a wholesale market for electricity and gas and a substantial reduction in consumer prices and improvement in services.

Beyond the privatisation of SOEs, we need to also otherwise reduce the footprint of the government. This means, for instance, reduction of ministries and divisions, especially in the areas devolved by the 18th Amendment, and by giving more functions to the private sector.

For example, the Ministry of Food Security can easily be made into an office within the commerce ministry. Or the Ministry of Education, which runs schools in GB and Islamabad, should devolve those functions to the local jurisdictions and just set national curriculum standards for education across the nation. We can also dissolve the Trading Corporation of Pakistan and let the private sector import food commodities.

Much of the rest of the world is able to provide food security to their people without a government company directly involved in trading and imports. The government’s strategic storage of wheat and fertiliser is warranted. However, the government will be able to buy and store wheat and fertiliser more economically if it relied on the private sector.

Given the tight fiscal position, the federal and provincial governments need to cut their development programmes. The money saved can perhaps be given as direct cash transfer to citizens through BISP or provincially-run programmes, and their quantum should be increased to at least 1pc of GDP.

My favourite reform is to give vouchers to poor students to attend private schools. Sindh and Punjab have done successful pilot programmes in this area, and now this programme should be expanded nationwide to all poor children.

Perhaps nothing is more important for long-term economic growth than legal reforms that result in predictable and timely decisions by the courts. This will keep government excesses in check, facilitate foreign investment, and disallow elite interests from prolonging court cases to their benefits.

Finally, the best way to improve governance is to improve the competence of bureaucrats. Civil service reforms should include specialisation, promotion on merit, and mandatory retirement of officials not up to the mark.

If Pakistan is to compete with its peer countries and lift our people out of poverty, these reforms are essential. Otherwise we will just continue to drift.

A just transition

Summary

Problem: Fossil fuels dominate the global energy mix (80%), but their use harms the planet and disproportionately impacts developing nations.

Decision: The UN Climate Conference agreed to "transition away" from fossil fuels, focusing on renewable energy.

Challenges:

• High cost of switching to renewables.
• Limited financial support for developing nations.
• Unequal distribution of investments in clean energy.
• High capital costs, limited government support, and challenging business environments in developing countries.

Opportunities:

• Rapidly expanding renewable energy systems in developed economies.
• Increased global investment in clean energy (40% since 2020).
• Potential for solar, wind, and hydropower in developing regions.

Key to Success:

• Stronger multilateral support and partnerships.
• Level playing field for developing and emerging economies.
• Scaled-up investments in all aspects of a clean energy system.

Overall: A just transition to clean energy requires addressing financial barriers, inequality, and fostering international collaboration. Developed nations must support developing countries in this transition for a sustainable future.

Article

FOSSIL fuels account for 90 per cent of global carbon emissions. The UN Climate Conference in Dubai last year took a decision to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels to protect the planet from their detrimental impact. Given the reliance of the world economy on oil, gas, and coal — mostly energy production — this was not an easy decision.

Fossil fuels have played a key role in economic development by propelling the engines and wheels of industrial revolution. Unfettered [unrestrained or uninhibited] access to natural resources and unrestrained extraction and use of fossil fuels by wealthy economies enabled them to reach the heights of development at a fast pace in a relatively short period. But this development came at a heavy cost to the planet and its people. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted during extraction and burning of fossil fuels have badly damaged the planet’s ecosystems, wreaking havoc especially in countries that are not historically responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In climate talks, the need to move away from fossil fuels has been accepted for some time. However, a common approach on how to embark on a pathway which reduces their adverse impacts eluded agreement. Rich industrialised nations favoured restricting the continued use of hydrocarbons and quickly switching to renewable forms of energy. Developing countries supported a more cautious and incremental approach to ensure their economic development is not compromised.

The Glasgow Climate meeting in 2021 broke the ice when it called for a ‘phase-down’ of fossil fuels, but fell short of providing a clear roadmap. The decision to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels is significant. It signals a move by nations to take a pragmatic look at energy production beyond oil, gas, and coal. It will help climate action, reduce pollution and create jobs if undertaken in an orderly and equitable way. To facilitate the transition, it was decided to take steps by “tripling renewable energy capacity globally” and “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power”.

Is the world ready to move towards clean energy?

But, is the world ready to make this transition? What are the possible barriers and enablers?

Today’s global energy mix remains heavily skewed in favour of fossil fuels, producing about 80 per cent of world energy. While there are no two views anymore on the imperative to wean off [accustom (an infant or other young mammal) to food other than its mother's milk] from fossil fuels, switching to renewable energy is hugely expensive. For developing nations, all highly dependent on fossil fuels, the paucity [the presence of something only in small or insufficient quantities or amounts; scarcity] of international and national public finance for clean energy is a major barrier.

Due to structural challenges, fiscal constraints and policy obstacles, the vast potential for solar, wind and hydropower in Asia and Africa begs exploration at scale to make a difference in lives. About 670 million people, mostly in the least developed countries, still live without access to electricity. Overall investment in clean energy has increased by 40pc since 2020, as recently reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, its distribution across regions is uneven. Developing and emerging economies, home to almost half of the world population, received just 16pc of global investments in renewable energy last year. A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency reveals that Africa’s share in global investments in renewables in the last two decades was a mere 2pc. Almost 40pc per cent of Africa’s population has no access to electricity.

By the IEA’s assessment, investments in these economies will need to be scaled up more than five times by 2030, as “the key to an orderly transition is to scale up investment in all aspects of a clean energy system”. The inequality between and among regions and countries can delay a just transition.

Among other barriers, the IEA identifies “high costs of capital, limited fiscal space for government support and challenging business environments” which inhibit the ambition and efforts of developing nations to expand their renewable energy infrastructures. In contrast, industrialised economies are moving in the right direction by rapidly expanding their renewable energy systems. In Europe, for example, fossil fuel electricity generation is declining as wind power and other renewables gain ground. In 2023, the ratio of electricity generated by fossil fuels in Europe fell by 19pc. These measures will contribute towards reducing GHG emissions.

Realising the global goals on climate will, however, require stronger multilateral support and renewed collaborative endeavours and partnerships across all regions. A level playing field for developing and emerging economies will be a key enabler of a just, orderly, and equitable energy transition.

Greater Israel

Summary

• Israel-Palestine Conflict:
• Intense war ongoing, with Israel accused of targeting civilians and Gaza facing devastation.
• UN resolutions calling for ceasefire ignored, raising questions about its effectiveness.
• Israeli justifications:
• Author claims Israel is using religion to legitimize expansion into Palestinian territories.
• Biblical quotes used to justify land claims encompassing parts of several Arab nations.
• Global response:
• Palestinians garnering increased international support and admiration due to media exposure.
• Western hypocrisy and Israeli actions raising awareness and criticism.
• Author's concerns:
• Potential for wider regional conflict or global war due to UN's ineffectiveness.
• Difficulty achieving Palestinian rights in a world dominated by powerful nations.

Article

THE barbaric war waged by Israel against Hamas has violated the UN Charter of Human Rights and the laws of war, and is being judged as possible genocide by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Calls for a ceasefire in the Security Council have been vetoed by the US and its allies, all of whom are EU and/ or Nato members. UN agencies have not only expressed their concern about the scale of devastation in Gaza, they have also expressed their horror and called for a ceasefire. Israeli atrocities have led to demonstrations by millions of people across the world censoring Israel and asking for an end to the war and the accommodation of Palestinian rights.

The Palestinians have conducted a well-organised campaign explaining the history of their struggle and the role that the European powers and the US have played in the creation of Israel and in maintaining it. This role includes fake media news campaigns in Israel’s favour; dehumanising Arabs and Muslims in whose lands oil, gas, and trade routes between the Middle East, Europe, and the US are located; the purchase of US politicians, involving billions of dollars; and the provision of every form of military hardware and intelligence, including massive financial aid.

In previous Palestine-Israel conflicts, religion did not figure overtly in justifying Israel’s acts of war, but it does in this one, making discussions at a rational level difficult, if not impossible. In the present conflict, Israel has used religion in trying to create legitimacy for its occupation and its intention of further expansion. The Torah (Old Testament) describes God’s covenant [an agreement] with Abraham. The chapter on ‘Genesis’ (15:18) reads, “To your descendants, I give this land from the river of Egypt to the great river Euphrates.” But this is not all, Moses, in the chapter ‘Deuteronomy’ (11:24), tells the Jews that “every place where you put the soles of your feet shall be yours” and that their borders “shall run from the wilderness of Lebanon and the Euphrates to the western sea”.

Israel’s politicians, prime minister and ministers, state officials, newscasters, soldiers, and citizens interviewed for the media, and slogans in demonstrations justify Israel’s occupation and future annexation of Palestinian land by quoting from the scriptures.

According to the borders defined in the Bible, today’s Israel would consist of Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and much of Iraq. A similar map was displayed by the Israeli prime minister at a recent UNGA meeting. But the aspirations of the Israelis are much larger. Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, presented a plan at a right-wing meeting in Paris in March 2023 which included parts of Saudi Arabia. An Israeli politician believes Israel will capture Makkah and Madina and “purify them”.

Israel has used religion in trying to create legitimacy for expansion.

Ever since the Iraq-Iran war in 1981, Israel has played a strategic role in providing intelligence, logistics, weapons, and, in many cases, direct armed intervention in support of the US and its allies to weaken and divide strong Arab states along ethnic and political lines, thus reducing their capability to stand up to Israel in an armed conflict. As a result, the US has a military presence both in Iraq and Syria, and it can bomb Lebanon at will. At the same time, the Israelis have wooed [seek the favor, support, or custom of] right-wing Arab states into agreeing to form a coalition against the more radical societies in the Arab world.

Because of the portrayal in Western media and films of Arabs as subhuman, Arab lives did not matter. However, due to the exposure of Western hypocrisy, lies, and Israeli barbarism by social media and Al Jazeera, Wes­tern audiences have come to know of the Pa­­l­estinians as a cultured, kind, and highly civilised and courageous people, and as a result, an enormous admiration for them and their society has developed. This has increased the distance between Western societies and their governments.

The war in Palestine continues, with the Netanyahu government firm in its resolve to exterminate the Palestinians of Gaza, Rafah and the West Bank, and making these territories a part of Greater Israel in complete disregard of the UN Security Council’s resolutions and the ICJ interim order.

In this situation, one is forced to ask two questions. One, what use is the UN Nations if its resolutions cannot be implemented, and two, how can this enormous outpouring of the world in favour of the Palestinians be used in a world dominated by the Global North, some of whose members have the right of vetoing resolutions supported by the UN? Yet another question: can the failure of the UN lead to a greater regional and/ or global war, as in the case of World War I? These are perturbing [causing anxiety or concern; unsettling] thoughts.