Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

 

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DAWN EDITORIALS

February 18, 2024 (Sunday)

GB without rights

Summary

• The people of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) have been unable to vote in Pakistani elections for 76 years, despite being under Pakistan's administrative control.
• They desire full integration into Pakistan as a province, but this is blocked due to the unresolved Kashmir dispute.
• Integrating GB provisionally could undermine Pakistan's legal position on Kashmir, but not granting them rights creates alienation and risks exploitation by adversaries.
• Arguments for integration include recognizing GB's right to self-determination, strengthening CPEC ties, and countering Indian claims.
• The author proposes immediate provisional integration with full Pakistani citizenship for GB residents, pending final settlement of the Kashmir dispute.

Article

MOHAMMAD Hussain, who hails from Ghanche in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and has been working in a household in Lahore, watched in despair as the whole of Pakistan, except for his own fellow Baltis, went to vote for their preferred candidates in the Feb 8 election. Hussain asked his boss why his folks were not allowed to vote. He could not understand the complex answer to this simple question.

GB’s political fate has been hanging in the balance for the past seven decades, even though on the eve of partition, the people of Gilgit Agency and many other northern areas, who had hardly accepted the suzerainty of the Dogra rulers, expressed their wish to join Pakistan. However, the political fate of these territories got linked to the dispute between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir. Ever since, the territories of Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Astore, Ghanche, Ghizer, and Hunza have been under Pakistan’s administrative control. Their people join the civil and armed services, carry Pakistan national identity cards, and for all practical purposes are Pakistanis. Yet, they cannot join our National Assembly and Senate to participate in Pakistan’s governance.

Successive governments have tried to enhance GB’s administrative autonomy, particularly in 2009 and 2018, but have fallen well short of what the people of GB have repeatedly demanded: full integration into Pakistan. In January 2019, the Supreme Court extended its jurisdiction to GB, creating an anomaly, because constitutionally GB was not a part of Pakistan. In March 2021, the GB Legislative Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution demanding provisional provincial status with representation in the constitutional bodies of Pakistan. Further, GB residents feel that while Pakistan took from the resources of GB, it was reluctant to give it constitutional status.

There is political consensus in Pakistan to admit GB as a provisional province. Under prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the Sartaj Aziz Committee recommended in 2016 giving GB a provisional provincial status. Prime minister Imran Khan’s government had also announced in 2020 that GB would be granted a provisional provincial status. And yet, the status quo is so hard to break, mainly because the integration of these territories into Pakistan could undermine the UNSC resolutions calling for determining the political fate of the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir through a plebiscite under UN auspices. So, for nearly 76 years, the people of GB have been waiting for the plebiscite.

Gilgit-Baltistan’s fate has been hanging in the balance for decades.

Is such a plebiscite likely to happen anytime soon? The ground reality is that India has consistently and brazenly refused to implement UNSC resolutions on the Kashmir dispute. The Modi government went a step further to annex the occupied territory in August 2019, and is currently engaged in demographic and electoral engineering to change the Muslim-majority status of India-occupied Kashmir in blatant violation of the UNSC resolutions. However, given India’s large market and strategic partnership with the US, there is no real pressure of the international community on India to fulfil its obligations under the resolutions. So, in practical terms, the prospects of India agreeing to hold the plebiscite are extremely low. If that is the ground reality, then the people of GB wonder how much longer they have to wait to get their right to self-determination recognised.

Understandably, integrating GB could have implications for Pakistan’s legal position on the Kashmir dispute. Hence, the suggestion has been to keep the integration provisi­onal and su­­bject to the final settlement of the Kashmir di­­spute. How­ever, there are other fa­­ctors that must not be ignored. Firstly, the people of GB have a right to self-determination, which is a fundamental right that overrides other considerations.

Secondly, given the salience [the quality of being particularly noticeable or important; prominence] of our relationship with Beijing, GB provides the vital geographical link to China and is central to the implementation of CPEC. Formally integrating GB will give full constitutional protection to CPEC-related and other international investments in GB. Thirdly, ignoring the consistently expressed desire of the people of GB to join Pakistan is creating a sense of alienation in GB, which could be exploited by the detractors of Pakistan. As it is, BJP leaders in India have sharpened their rhetoric of claim on these territories.

In view of these arguments, it is a strategic imperative that GB be integrated into Pakistan as a provisional province without further delay and its people be recognised as citizens of Pakistan with full rights admissible under the Constitution of Pakistan, pending a final settlement of the Kashmir dispute.

Blackout to backlash

Summary

Election concerns:

• Nationwide mobile service suspension on election day raised concerns about manipulated results and fueled political chaos.
• Election irregularities are common, but this time the public's faith in the system is deeply shaken.
• Security threats were real, but shutting down mobile services nationwide seemed unnecessary and harmful.

Establishment's role:

• Some believe poll managers favored certain parties, excluding those opposing the status quo.
• Focusing on imposing order at the expense of political and social processes erodes legitimacy.
• The establishment's approach in Balochistan alienated nationalist parties and worsened the situation.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman:

• He capitalized on anti-establishment sentiment and secured seats in Balochistan despite rigging claims.
• His future alliances depend on the new government's actions and his own bargaining power.

Overall crisis:

• The political crisis is entrenched with no quick solutions.
• Rebuilding public trust requires independent and judicious actions by the new government.
• This loss of faith in the system is Pakistan's biggest challenge, even surpassing economic concerns.

Article

IT all started with the nationwide suspension of mobile phone services on election day. Poll managers might not have realised that this suspension would aggravate political chaos, which could lead towards a demand for fresh elections.

Though the caretaker government claimed it had suspended mobile phone services due to security concerns, the Election Commission and other concerned departments and ministries were reportedly unaware a day before the election whether a suspension would be necessary. This confusion fuelled debate that the election results could have been manipulated under the cover of the communication blackout.

While rigging charges and election day irregularities are not new in Pakistan, the dust usually settles after a few weeks, with political parties and losing candidates making compromises. Only a few continue their legal battles. In 2013, the PTI launched a massive anti-rigging campaign, maintaining pressure on the government through protests. With the poll managers on their side, they were confident of eventually coming to power. Meanwhile, the PML-N continued to rule in a compromised manner.

The managers seemed to believe that the political fervour [intense and passionate feeling] would subside [become less intense, violent, or severe] after the formation of the new government. While we may see temporary appeasement [pacify or placate (someone) by acceding to their demands], tampering with election results weakens the country’s power structures and erodes public faith in the system. As scholar Adil Najam rightly points out, it is not the economy but the loss of faith in the state by its citizens that is the biggest challenge emerging from this election.

At this juncture [a particular point in events or time] in history, Pakistan needed the most transparent elections ever held.

The security concerns were genuine as general elections loomed; Islamist militants and Baloch insurgents had intensified their attacks to disrupt and discredit the democratic process. From Feb 1 to Feb 9, 36 out of 63 reported terrorist attacks were directly linked to election violence.

Most of these attacks occurred in Balochistan’s central and Makran regions and Pakhtun-dominated districts. While threats persisted in Dera Ismail Khan and North Waziristan in KP, these largely mirrored previous trends.

The pattern of threats was clear, with identified territories and known locations of heightened risk. Law-enforcement agencies knew the intensity of attacks and could have devised security plans accordingly. However, shutting down mobile services nationwide appeared unnecessary and potentially detrimental to the democratic exercise. Despite the suspension of the mobile phone services, the terrorists managed 11 attacks in the high-risk areas mentioned.

The state has invested heavily in developing counterterrorism infrastructure, including dedicated departments, such as the National Counter Terrorism Authority, specialised security cells, and forces. If these institutions cannot formulate a comprehensive security plan for elections, the state and incoming parliament must critically analyse their performance and resource allocation.

It was alarming that just after the polls, the TTP issued a statement addressing the JUI-F and Jamaat-i-Islami to say that the manipulated democratic system would not allow religious parties to come to power. The right path, according to them, was to join their ranks to topple the system and bring a Taliban-style system to the country. While the TTP’s stance is not new and does not likely inspire the religious parties’ leadership, their statement fuels the ongoing discourse on the country’s power elites. Baloch insurgents share similar views, asserting that the manipulated electoral process will not heal the Baloch people’s wounds.

At this juncture in history, Pakistan needed the most transparent elections ever held to restore the people’s faith in the system. Some speculate that the poll managers were following a different template, where parties and individuals showing resistance to the status quo were deemed unacceptable.

Establishments often focus on imposing order, frequently at the expense of political and social order. They may believe that order brings discipline and stability to society and governance, but they always neglect to consider how their policies erode their legitimacy to impose order.

At least the perception is deepening in Balochistan, where nationalist parties have become alienated, targeted by insurgents, and victims of the poll managers’ manipulations. Malik Siraj, a US-based journalist, has analysed the state’s approach in Balochistan well. He describes how the establishment and caretaker government brought the province back to the Musharraf era, when Baloch alienation peaked. He argues that the situation will aggravate if someone like Sarfraz Bugti, who shares that mindset, is brought to power in the province. This would erode the confidence the previous government had tried to rebuild.

It is now clear that a politician who sensed the changing political winds was Maulana Fazlur Rehman. He realised this was the right time to align himself with the rapidly growing anti-establishment sentiment. In a TV interview on a private channel, he claimed that the no-confidence motion that ousted former prime minister Imran Khan was tabled on the directives of former army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. He further claimed that he opposed the no-confidence move. While his claim has been contested, it paved the way for him to join the PTI-led anti-establishment camp. Meanwhile, he has secured 11 provincial seats in Balochistan, exploiting the rigging narrative. Quetta-based journalists believe that the maulana’s mandate is different from the JUI-F’s actual electoral strength on the ground.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman has skillfully managed to break the ice with his long-time nemesis, but the longevity of this relationship remains to be determined. Should the establishment and incoming government make a tempting offer, he might readily join them. Conversely, he continues to play the anti-establishment card. In that case, any alliance with the establishment would entail higher costs than the benefits of shared power at the centre and in Balochistan.

The political crisis seems entrenched, with no immediate end in sight. One potential path forward lies with the new government. By acting judiciously and independently, it can rebuild public trust. However, political actors remain paralysed, unwilling to move without the establishment’s tacit [understood or implied without being stated] approval.

This is the biggest crisis Pakistan faces.

Controlled chaos? Think not

Summary

Overall situation:

• Pakistan is in chaos and confusion after the recent elections.
• There is no clear path forward, and the country is deeply divided.
• Both civilian and non-civilian power players are to blame for the instability.

Key points:

• The author criticizes endless "political engineering experiments" and their negative consequences.
• He argues that both outright military rule and engineered hybrid systems have failed.
• He proposes a truth and reconciliation process as the only way forward.
• This process should be led by credible and non-controversial figures.
• The current situation is unsustainable and will likely lead to further decline.

Article

HOPES of clarity after the Feb 8 elections have evaporated and a country, perennially [in a way that continues for a long or apparently infinite time; permanently] in the midst of a crisis, now appears gripped by chaos and in a tailspin, with the wildest of speculation suddenly acquiring an eminently plausible status. That is where we are.

From the usually informed journalists and analysts to the wildly swinging vloggers, everyone is clueless. Truly so. Even more, columnists such as this one. Would you stop reading if I own up to not having any inside information? Perhaps you might, and that’s a risk I have to take in being honest.

What I do know, and you too, is that Pakistan has had endless experiments with military rule or, more accurately, has had endless experiments conducted by military rulers: from Ayub Khan’s martial law to Basic Democracies to Ziaul Haq’s outright military rule and then an attempted civilianisation of that via a partyless election which produced a party-run parliament.

And, more recently, the general-chief executive whose martial law was cloaked in civvies but he wielded absolute power from the centre of his empire in Rawalpindi. At some point or the other, each of these military rulers has suffered from a crisis of legitimacy and tried to hide behind a civilian façade. But, as a number of elections in different eras have demonstrated, the people have always had other ideas.

Endless political engineering experiments will always result in some undesirable mutations.

On the other hand, rather than strengthen whatever little democracy we have had, the democrats, who are supposed to be its guardians, have turned for help to forces inimical [tending to obstruct or harm] to democracy. Inimical because it challenges and undermines their primacy [the fact of being primary, preeminent, or more important] in decision-making and, more importantly, in resource allocation exercises.

Such endless political engineering experiments will always result in some undesirable mutations too. What makes one feel awful is that in a country of some 240 million people, an unacceptably large chunk of which lives below the poverty line, it is the shirtless who will end up bearing the brunt of the fallout.

For those who truly believe in liberal, democratic values and norms, it may be difficult to digest but, after the failure of both outright and brazen military rule and politically-engineered hybrid set-ups, the inevitability of civilian-led authoritarianism or our version of fascism stares us in the face.

I’d be happy to say, for once, what we have is controlled chaos aimed at crisis management, but it does not appear that way, does it? The control over the ‘narrative’ has been lost. Daily revelations from those long acknowledged as democrats with ties to non-democrats, to civil servants whose ‘conscience’ has suddenly awakened (but not sufficiently to point to the elephant in the room) is also symptomatic of friction within, if not a breakdown.

This is where we are. So, what is the way forward, if there is one, at all? Well, given the utter chaos in which we find ourselves, the path ahead looks neither mapped nor clear. It is equally true that the country and the people are being pulled in different directions.

Indeed, the media is to blame for some of the hysteria we are witnessing today, but it is not guilty of triggering or generating it. Admittedly, with demands of the 24x7 rolling news formats, the media may be contributing to the madness by highlighting the chaos on a loop, but it isn’t creating it.

If a commentator like me suggests the only way forward that is viable, sustainable and workable with the capacity to deliver stability, I can be certain many friends and foes alike will accuse of me being utopian, divorced from the real world around us.

You know what? It is rather late in life for me to change. So here it is. The only sane way forward, like my good friend Umar Aftab suggested on social media, is to have a genuine and credible truth and reconciliation process, modelled after the Bishop Desmond Tutu-led South African exercise.

There is no other way. All parties, civilian or otherwise, who consider themselves players or contenders in the power game being played in the country today can either move towards such a process, or stay adamant in remaining where they are.

The only thing I can say with certainty is that the status quo guarantees mutually assured destruction. Not of the Cold War type, of course, but with broadly similar consequences for the power aspirants. There will be no spoils after this war is over; only losers.

And among the various power players in this blighted land of ours, the biggest burden will again fall on those who claim the mantle of democrats for themselves. The process needs to be initiated and initiated now in earnest, and needs to be steered by those in the country who remain credible, trustworthy and non-controversial.

Edhi may not be among us anymore, but there are others. If you ask me, I can count a dozen people, at least, if not more. I am sure, so can you. In fact, each one of us can draw up our own list. I know suggesting a truth and reconciliation exercise in such a wounded, fragmented society isn’t utopia.

I also know that expecting both our power-hungry or perpetually power-drunk, often ego-driven narcissistic players to sit around a table while keeping in sharp focus the faces, the aspirations, of the millions of those struggling to feed their children and send them to school, will indeed be utopianism.

At this stage, the best likely outcome one can visualise is this rot lasting for another 12, possibly 18 months. What then? The power players don’t care. You and I don’t count.

All about women

Summary

• Ignoring women's rights hinders stability: The author criticizes the nomination of Amin Gandapur, accused of misogyny, arguing it disregards women's safety and participation, hindering national stability.
• Women's issues impact everyone: The author emphasizes that issues like healthcare and education for women benefit everyone, not just women themselves.
• Pakistan's gender gap is widening: Pakistan ranks poorly in global gender equality reports, and the author urges the new government to prioritize women's well-being in policymaking.
• Economic progress requires women's participation: Investments in health and education for women are crucial for their full participation in the workforce and national development.
• Small hope for change: The author expresses cautious optimism that Pakistan can improve its record on women's rights and move away from being listed among the worst countries for them.

Article

I UNDERSTAND that politics is the art of compromise, but why must women’s bo­­dies be sacrificed at the altar of deal-making?

This question weighs heavily on my mind, but I’ve accepted this is just the way things are going to be here. Men accused of sexual assault, for example, will be awarded seats because that crime won’t be considered as grievous as their opponents’ loot maar. I was reminded of just how little value is placed on women when news of Imran Khan’s decision to nominate Amin Gandapur broke.

I understand enough politics to know that you won’t find a perfect candidate or one that will appeal to various stakeholders. However, since Gandapur’s name was announced, many questions were raised across prime time shows, leading with his alleged role in May 9 violence. It would be grossly unfair to reward him with such a high seat when people are imprisoned on the same charges. Many people brought up his sexist remarks made at jalsas about Maryam Nawaz, saying she spent Rs80m on taxpayers’ money on cosmetic surgery. (It was not denounced by the party leadership or supporters.) What few mentioned on mainstream media, but it figured on social media, were the serious allegations about his alleged support to the perpetrators of a crime where a teenage girl was stripped and paraded naked in his native D.I. Khan in 2017. He has denied those charges.

That the chairman thought it more important to send a certain message to the country with Gandapur’s nomination is the reminder I needed about women being sacrificial lambs again and again in deal-making. What disappoints me the most is the women who support this. I’m talking about the party supporters who blast ‘feminists’ for not standing up for a host of issues related to PTI but stay silent when women are thrown under the bus by their party leadership.

There can be no stability if half the demographic is ignored.

Gandapur should not be the hill anyone wants to die on.

It is possible to support a party and criticise its policies. PTI has some of the most passionate women supporters and leaders, many of whom do not subscribe to these horrendous views. I hope they will take co­­urage and denounce anti-women rhetoric.

Unfortunately, Gandapur is not alone in the brazen display of misogyny but how can we make it unacceptable to hold such views, at least in public office? You can’t eradicate misogyny but surely there is another road away from systems built on a disregard for women’s participation in public life.

This is why language matters, especially if they frame policies.

Remember when we celebrated Afghans for having ‘broken the shackles of slavery’? It demonstrated a lack of thought to the consequences the Taliban’s return to power will have on women. Today, there is no indication when the Taliban will lift a ban on secondary education for girls, or working in government or travelling far without a male relative or even going to parks. Social services, like the healthcare sector, are in a dire state. There is a cost to this ban on women’s participation in the country’s progress. The UNDP put a figure on it: an estimated five per cent of the country’s GDP.

Perhaps one way forward is to stop thi­nking of issues as women’s issues. No issue only impacts women — be it her health or her freedom of movement. Women’s issues impact everyone; they require urgent redressal, which won’t happen if their well-being is an afterthought; if she herself perceives her safety, health, access to services was not taken into consideration when creating XYZ policy.

We should stri­­ve to live in a cou­ntry where people think twice before saying something sexist for ratings or giggles. Inst­e­­ad, we live in a country where the portrayal of toxic masculinity, dom­estic violence and regressive female roles are considered ratings gold. Our pace of reforms towards gender equality is painfully slow. We ranked 142 out of 146 countries on the Global Gender Gap report in 2023; it was 145 out of 146 in 2022. This is nothing to cheer.

The small optimist in me says things don’t have to be this way. Pakistan doesn’t have to keep featuring in lists of worst co­­untries for women’s rights. That there is more to women than their reproductive abi­­­lity or place in the family or ties to power.

I understand the new government has the economy as its foremost priority but stability cannot come if half the country’s demographic is ignored. Policies must include contributions women can make in stabilising Pakistan. Investments must be made in sectors that will enable their full participation, starting with health and education, which will lead to an increase in the labour force. All TV analysts are saying the new government has to take tough decisions. I hope they will make the right ones, too.