Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

 

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DAWN EDITORIALS

February 22, 2024 (Thursday)

Imran Khan’s rise

Summary

Imran Khan's Popularity:

• Khan enjoys strong popular support, evidenced by consistent wins in by-elections despite attempts to suppress his campaign.
• This support is attributed to various factors, including anti-establishment sentiment, economic hardship, and dislike for other political leaders.
• Khan's appeal resonates particularly with young voters, a rapidly growing demographic in Pakistan.

Challenges and Opportunities:

• Pakistan's economy faces critical issues like high energy costs and debt burden, requiring decisive leadership.
• Khan needs to adapt his policies to address these challenges and transition the economy towards domestic resources and less energy-intensive manufacturing.
• Both economic and political landscapes are undergoing significant change, with traditional patronage systems struggling to adapt to new demographics and realities.

Overall:

• Khan's political resurgence is undeniable and driven by various factors.
• He faces crucial economic challenges that require strategic solutions.
• Adapting to changing demographics and political realities will be key for Khan and other political players in Pakistan's future.

Article

THERE is no denying that a powerful wave of popular support is surging behind Imran Khan today. There is no sense, and no sanity, in denying this.

All predictions that the sun will soon set on Khan once he is removed from power are proving wrong. Just as things begin to look bad for him, something comes along to recharge his strength.

That something is always the same: an appeal to the people. Following the vote of no-confidence in April 2022, for example, Khan announced a long march to Islamabad in May. That long march fai­led to garner sufficient numbers to accomplish anything special. Khan called it off abruptly after reaching Islamabad and went off to Banigala instead.

There was a sense that the politics of agitation that had served him so well during the period of his rise after the so-called tsunami march in August 2014 was no longer going to work, because he no longer had the support of the establishment that was a crucial ingredient in the success of the earlier wave of agitation politics. Instead, Khan fell back on rallies, large numbers of them, and attracted large crowds whom he showered with fiery rhetoric of betrayal and pride.

But then came the by-elections on 20 seats that the PTI had themselves resigned from, and Khan won 15 of them. That jolt was the first sign that something big was stirring beneath the surface. Some tried to play this down. The victory was due to a stunt, they said, when Khan fielded himself as the candidate on all seats.

Others said he had only won back seats that were his own to start off with. Yet others said anti-incumbent sentiment played a role, because the PDM government of Shehbaz Sharif had just completed a painful series of adjustments in fuel and power prices that had spurred inflation and eaten into people’s purchasing power.

There is no sense in trying to minimise the fact that Imran Khan has established a powerful connection with the electorate.

But then came another 11 by-elections in October in which Khan again fielded himself as the candidate on seven seats and won six of them. The PPP privately made a big deal out of the one seat which Khan lost to their candidate — Malir in Karachi. But the larger picture was gaining clarity: whenever Khan went to the people, he returned with his powers recharged.

Discerning this, Khan played a bigger stroke: he dissolved the Punjab and KP assemblies in January 2023, hoping to push a large number of by-elections in both provinces as required by the Constitution. But sensing that holding these elections would only increase his strength further, the PDM government prevaricated and ultimately succeeded in stymieing those elections for more than one year.

The elections of Feb 8, 2024, were the next mo­­m­­ent afforded to Khan to approach the people, and this time every effort was made to suppress his appeal. He was in jail, his party had no symbol, his activists were arrested, a large number of party leaders were forced to leave politics or join some other party, and his candidates were not able to hold corner meetings, let alone large rallies.

The eventual result was marred by widespread, and credible, allegations of rigging, sometimes in numbers so large as to sway an entire constituency away from Khan’s candidate towards the opponent.

And still his candidates carried just under one-third of the total votes cast, the single-largest vote block of them all. By seat share, their showing was even larger, because their voter mobilisation strategy was superior to that of other parties.

There is now no sense in denying or trying to minimise the fact that Imran Khan has established a powerful connection with the electorate. The more they try to keep him down, the stronger this connection gets and wins him ever more adherents.

All sorts of theories are now being floated about what the main driver of this connection really is. Some say it is an anti-establishment vote. Others say a protracted period, lasting more than 20 months, of record high inflation, is what is driving people to flock to his appeal. Yet another theory said it is not love for Khan, but dislike (or even hate) for Nawaz Sharif that lies behind this growing appeal.

We can read all sorts of messages into this powerful appeal, but we cannot wish it away. Khan has succeeded beyond even his own wildest imagination. It is critical now to examine the deeper, underlying drivers of this stupendous political story. A failing economy and a changing demography are two places to look.

Pakistan’s economy is faced with critical choices that require decisive leadership. For one, a high-energy-cost environment is now permanently upon us as imported LNG increasingly replaces dwindling stocks of domestic gas. Second, a dangerously high debt burden means business as usual cannot continue. Pakistan must adapt to both realities simultaneously: transition out of energy-intensive manufacturing, and learn to rely on domestic resources to fuel growth rather than foreign borrowing.

Failing to make these transitions means high inflation and high unemployment at precisely the moment when the country is absorbing a youth bulge, with more than two million new entrants joining the workforce every year.

These are all young people. For them, 9/11 happened before they were born. And increasingly, these young people are filling our voter rolls. More than 22m new voters were added to the electorate in 2024 compared to 2018, a record-high increase, although it is not clear how many of these were young people.

Pakistan is changing. In the economic realm, the old manufacturing bases are being rendered obsolete as energy costs adjust sharply upward with every passing year.

And in the political realm, the patronage machines that sustained the old political parties are finding the ground shifting beneath their feet, as more and more first-time voters enter the rolls. Those who adapt to the changes will survive. Those who do not, will go down kicking and screaming.

‘We wuz robbed’

Summary

• Disputed elections: The 2024 Pakistani elections are the costliest and most suspicious in history, with accusations of widespread manipulation.
• Discrepancies: Discrepancies between official forms raise concerns about vote tampering, leading to the "We wuz robbed" sentiment among voters.
• High cost: The election cost Rs49 billion, money many citizens feel could have been better spent on education (budgeted at Rs97bn).
• Reluctant leadership: Major parties seem hesitant to claim victory due to the controversy, with Nawaz Sharif stepping aside for his brother Shehbaz.
• Economic pressure: Shehbaz Sharif faces pressure from the IMF to deliver on economic reforms, raising concerns about political stability.
• Establishment influence: Historical ties between the establishment and some politicians raise concerns about potential interference.
• Uncertain future: The longevity and stability of the new coalition government remain uncertain.

Article

“WE wuz robbed!” Grammatically incorrect, perhaps, but a forceful outburst nevertheless, uttered first in the 1930s by Joe Jacobs, the manager of the boxer Max Schmeling after his rigged defeat in a heavyweight boxing match.

It has been used ever since in a variety of situations — from sports to elections — when a clear defeat has been changed into a murky [dark and gloomy, especially due to thick mist] victory. On Feb 8-9, it was repeated across Pakistan in different dialects following the 2024 general elections. Its final results have yet to receive an unequivocal acceptance by the competing parties.

Their complaints — some registered, others to be registered, a few tossed in the lap of the judiciary — rise from the discrepancy between the ECP’s Form 45 and Form 47. These forms are more than a bureaucratic formality. They are the foundations upon which the credibility of the balloting stands.

Specifically, Form 45 — the ‘Result of Count’ form — is the first record of votes polled at a polling station. It contains, inter alia, ‘the total number of registered voters, total number of votes cast, and a breakdown of the votes earned by each candidate”.

This has been the costliest and most sterile election in our history.

After votes have been counted, Form 45 is then submitted to the Returning Officer of each constituency. The RO tallies all the Form 45s to determine the final results and compiles a Form 47. “Form 47 documents the unconfirmed results in a constituency. This includes the number of votes polled in the constituency, a candidate-wise breakdown of votes, and the number of votes cancelled/ rejected.” Then, Forms 48 and 49 publish the full and final vote tallies. These become the official declarations of the election results.

The lowest tier in the pyramid carries the heaviest burden. It is expected to be the most dependable. Ideally, an EVM system minimises the possibility of fraudulent int­ervention between the tiers. In a manual system, however, ballot papers can be ma­­ni­­­­pulated by hands that leave no thumbprints.

Before the elections, many were sceptical about the impartiality of the ECP. After the elections, too many voters harbour suspicions about its conduct. To paraphrase Winston Churchill’s memorable phrase about the RAF during World War II, never in the history of Pakistan’s electoral conflict have so many votes been manipulated by so few. No wonder 128 million voters feel affronted. They wuz robbed.

At Rs49 billion, this has been the costliest and most sterile election in our history. The 128m voters (22m of them new entrants) would have preferred to see the government spend that money on their education. (The allocation for education in the 2023-24 budget was Rs97bn.) Instead, they have been taught the wrong lesson: that electoral fraud was not invented in Pakistan; it was simply perfected here.

When the spoils of war were arrayed bef­ore the major political parties, they seemed reluctant to claim their prizes. The presidency, the prime ministership and other constitutional posts were being tossed bet­ween the PML-N and PPP as if they were tinsel [a form of decoration consisting of thin strips of shiny metal foil] crowns. Our leaders are discovering the truth in Frederick the Great’s remark that “a crown is merely a hat that lets the rain in”.

A deluge [a severe flood] of problems awaits the next prime minister. Daunted by the prospect, a disappointed Nawaz Sharif who dreamed of a fourth term as PM shied away before the final hurdle. He has decided to invest his sunset years in grooming his daughter Maryam for the gentler steeplechase [a horse race run on a racecourse having ditches and hedges as jumps] of Punjab’s chief ministership.

Nawaz has yielded the PM-ship to his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif. To understand why Shehbaz Sharif agreed to don the spiky cro­wn, re­­member the assurance he gave to IMF’s managing director Kr­­istalina Georgi­eva in July 2023. Then, expres­sing his “pr­­ofound gratitude” for her “support and assistance in materialising” the Stand-by Arra­ng­e­ment for $3bn, he assured her that “after the elections, if the people of Pakistan re-elect his government, he is committed to turning over the economy with the help of IMF and development partners”. She conveyed to the IMF board that she had personally met the prime minister and “seen his seriousness to deliver”.

The IMF and friendly lenders (particularly China over CPEC) now expect Shehbaz Sharif to stand up and deliver.

How long will the next coalition government last? Longer than any of its predecessors? Or will it be constantly looking over its shoulder, afraid of an establishment itching to remove it?

One recalls that in 1981, Gen Ziaul Haq selected a little-known ironmonger Nawaz Sharif as the finance minister Punjab. When he began his political career 40 years ago, the uppermost hierarchy in the present establishment were still either cadets or probationers then.

No wonder ageing Caesars fear the dagger of Brutus the Younger.

The right way?

Summary

• Three lawyers, PTI candidates, contested elections with discrepancies in final results.
• Two lawyers (Raja & Malik) followed legal routes (court challenges) with no success.
• Third lawyer (Marwat) rallied supporters, retrieved official results, and secured his seat.
• The author argues that legal routes are ineffective and citizens feel unheard.
• The public perceives force as the only way to counter "rigged" elections.
• The author suggests the US Second Amendment as a model for citizen self-defense.
• This opinion piece reflects broader frustration with the electoral process in Pakistan.

Article

THIS is a tale of three lawyers and their post-election journeys. It is also a tale of numbers, of frustrations and concoctions [a mixture of various ingredients or elements] but, in the end, and importantly, of figuring out the right way.

In the recent elections, there were these three successful lawyers, among others, who had decided to contest. They were the PTI-backed candidates. At the end of Feb 8, all three of them jubilantly waved a bunch of forms — Form-45s — reflecting that apparently the vast majority of votes in their respective constituencies had been cast in their favour.

But as the night of Feb 8 turned into the morning of Feb 9, the forms that were to show the consolidated results from all the polling stations in a particular constituency were initially withheld, without explanation, for quite some time. When those results came out later in the day on Feb 9, or later still, they were not consistent with the already handed out Form 45s. Something had gone terribly amiss in doing the basic arithmetic.

The first two, Mr Salman Akram Raja and Mr Taimur Malik, decided to engage with the system in good faith. If there were errors, the system must be capable of rectifying them. As Mr Raja, contesting from Lahore, for instance, was forcefully ousted while the Returning Officer (RO) prepared the provisional consolidated results, in a Form 47, he decided to raise the alarm. Mr Raja, as soon as he could, went to the high court. He had been deprived of his statutory right to be present during the consolidations, both provisional and final. Somebody had to take notice.

Going before ‘neutral arbiters’ seems pointless to citizens.

When the consolidated results came out, his lead, as he had rightly feared when he was removed from the consolidation process, had vanished. Someone else purportedly won. Meanwhile, there were no other set of Form 45s brought to counter the Form 45s that Mr Raja had with him. He has been raising the discrepancies before the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the high courts. But, until now, to no avail.

Similarly, Mr Malik, contesting from Multan, had the Form 45s in his favour, but the Form 47, issued a second time, had eventually displayed a difference of about 100 votes between the purportedly successful candidate and him. About 13,000 votes were rejected, a disproportionate number. Mr Malik sought a recount. He went to the RO, the ECP and the high court, ie, the usual drill. But, until now, nothing foreseeably seems to be giving way.

Both of them are now deeply embroiled in the legal mishmash, and despite being on their own turf as lawyers, they must be feeling what Kafka’s Joseph K. felt in The Trial. It appears as if they adopted the wrong way.

At least that is the message on display. Because the third lawyer, Mr Sher Afzal Marwat, contesting from Lakki Marwat, adopted another method. His consolidated Form-47 was being withheld too. He was aware that there were forces in play to distort the results of his election. But he did not make the mistake of filing an application before the RO, nor did he go to the high court or the ECP. Instead, he went to his people, told them that something was wrong, rallied them and headed for the office of the RO. After successfully retrieving the official result, in line with the issued Form 45s, he said, in a now viral clip online, that when the rounds of AK-47s reverberated in the air, Form 47, showing the accurate consolidated results, magically surfaced.

Mr Marwat got his duly earned seat in the National Assembly. The other two, Mr Raja and Mr Ma­­lik, meanwhile, have a long, arduous legal battle ahead of them, without any promise of them being successful.

The message for the onlookers and the yet-to-prove-themselves is just one: good faith engagement with the ‘system’ bears little to no reward. Going before the ‘neutral arbiters’ remains pointless — they are, essentially, neither neutral nor arbiters. It seems equally futile to expect the bureaucrats to grow a spine against the ruthlessness and brutality of another set of masked ‘neutrals’.

In response to the raw, rugged display of power, the need of the hour, it is perceived, is probably to meet it with a similar kind of power. When those wielding guns continue to dictate, holding hostage any effort to create a meaningful disruption, then the message to the citizens is this: that, probably, we may need to wield guns as well, and grant ourselves a right to bear arms in line with the Second Amendment of the US Constitution. The public becomes convinced that, in fighting heavy-handedness, with malleable rules of the game, there is only force and power that count, and that ‘we the people’ probably need to consider becoming more forceful and powerful.

Four unavoidable agendas

Summary

Pakistan's current challenges:

• Flawed democracy: Elections lack transparency and fairness, leading to public distrust.
• Hybrid regime: Military holds excessive influence in politics and policy.
• Economic inequality: Neoliberal policies benefit elites while neglecting the poor.
• Social injustice: Human rights violations, poor governance, and corruption.
• Security concerns: Focus on wars and defense has drained resources.

Four urgent agendas for Pakistan:

1.      End the hybrid regime: Establish clear boundaries between civilian and military roles.

2.     Enforce fundamental rights: Protect citizens from abuse and discrimination.

3.     Address economic inequality: Implement policies for fairer distribution of wealth and resources.

4.    Seek peace and development: Reduce military spending and focus on human development.

Article

PAKISTAN’S state institutions, especially the Election Commission, have fallen miserably short of ensuring electoral transparency or fairness.

The result, if not the very legitimacy of elections, is being questioned not only by the ‘defeated’ contestants but also by independent observers and key Western governments.

Even though the major political parties, including the PTI, seem willing to keep the system running despite their individual reservations, muddling through the system in the old Machiavellian way won’t be helpful or prove lasting. The country desperately needs stability on the back of an unadulterated democratic order, which requires a bipartisan commitment to overhaul the broken system.

The political landscape seems flooded with conflicting currents. But a deeper look shows several confluences [the junction of two rivers, especially rivers of approximately equal width] that may help political actors coalesce [come together to form one mass or whole] around a reconstructive agenda. First, given the split mandate, none of the political parties, or for that matter the establishment, enjoys a position to dictate the terms — even if they are joining hands to rule at the centre.

Second, the looming economic implosion requires a broader political consensus on a sustainable polity that could endure tough and indispensable decision-making for reviving the economy.

Third, the hybrid system’s historical addiction to finding a military-style or authoritarian solution to every problem — be it political or fiscal, or related to foreign or security policy — has come a cropper. The state stands grounded, politically, economically, institutionally, even in terms of security.

Defiance is writ large on the landscape — tribal, rural, urban, and metropolitan.

Finally, even the judiciary is no longer able to leverage its status as an honest arbiter due to a toxic, polarised environment and because some of its recent decisions are being perceived as ‘unfair’ and ‘partisan’. Thus, the political classes have a rare opportunity to close ranks and remould the political order, focusing, inter alia, on the following four unavoidable agendas.

End the hybrid regime, effectively and irreversibly. The security establishment plays an important role in national security, but is not supposed to assume or determine the elected government’s core functions. Our Constitution restricts it to the domain of security. But the boundaries have rarely been respected. What we have lived under is either raw military rule or a ‘hybrid’ order that, de facto, accords the military establishment a larger-than-life role in policy and execution.

Ironically, unlike the ‘illiberal’ East Asian model that prides itself on the troika of efficiency, development, and stability, our hybrid system has offered little in terms of economic, security or political boons [a thing that is helpful or beneficial]. It has thrived largely on its twin tools of coercive power and judicial manipulation. But now, perhaps for the first time, those tools are becoming ineffectual.

As the state stands beset with multiple crises, the old ways of running the political system have come under formidable attack by a new youthful political culture that is on the rise. It is not a revolution yet. But defiance is writ large on the landscape — tribal, rural, urban and metropolitan. The spectacular comeback of a much-battered PTI, embarrassing pro-establishment contestants, is sounding the death knell for the ancien régime.

Enforce citizens’ fundamental rights: The enforcement of fundamental rights is the measure of a successful democracy. But our record has been dismal. Human rights are unremittingly trampled [tread on and crush] upon — in many ways. The loosely framed anti-blasphemy laws have become regular instruments of persecution of the hapless and marginalised members of religious minorities.

The wider definition of ‘terrorism’ covering even minor damage to public property has given the authorities carte blanche to implicate any ‘offender’, even conscientious objectors, condemning them to years of incarceration and other injustices.

Eliminating people as terrorists or ‘enemies’ of the state is another convenient alibi used by security agencies to get away with their high-handedness. Hundreds have gone ‘missing’ (allegedly abducted by state agencies), leaving families to strive for justice for years on end. But to no avail. Disgruntled, many a young man has taken up arms.

Besides draconian laws and repression, skewed [suddenly change direction or position] social policies, poor governance, and institutionalised corruption also have a direct bearing on rights and liberties. Half the populace is illiterate, and millions have no access to even basic services. Let’s not forget that an apathetic [showing or feeling no interest, enthusiasm, or concern], elitist or Orwellian state was never contemplated by the founding fathers. The country was promised as a benevolent and law-abiding republic. It is time, therefore, to redeem this pledge made to the people.

Give the people their dues: Our economic policies have been guided by an iniquitous [grossly unfair and morally wrong] neoliberal theory that is premised on an elusive ‘trickle-down’ effect. Our economic wizards have long postulated with religious zeal that supply-side economics would spur growth and bring in more wealth and jobs. But that theory has fallen flat.

Instead, we have a lopsided [with one side lower or smaller than the other] economy dominated by an extractive elite that represents powerful industrial, financial, commercial, and propertied interests. Many a generation has been lost to a low-income, debt-trapped economy, compounded by the exploitative business, political and state elite.

Even after seven decades, the people continue to yearn for education, health, water, food, etc. Dearth [a scarcity or lack of something], neglect, and repression have intensified public anger if not outright alienation against the state. The country is facing insurgencies and terrorism. The failed economic policy must be drastically reformed. The focus should be not on growth alone. An equitable redistribution of wealth and resources must also be ensured. Let the common folk receive their historical dues.

Stop the wars: Dangling [hanging or swinging loosely] India as an ‘existential’ threat to Pakistan, a siege mentality has been nurtured from early on to justify a security state.

Ignoring our limited resources and pitiable social conditions, the state has been pushed into all kinds of wars — international, internal, regional, proxy, hot and cold. But still the search is on for the holy grail of national security, though the state has gone nuclear.

But the ‘war economy’ has now reached breaking point. It can’t sustain the mammoth defence structures anymore. It needs peace and stability to develop soft powers that propel the world — democracy, science, technology, and human resources. India and China have grown into global powers treading on this twin-track, avoiding major conflicts, and developing human and economic resources. Why can’t we?