Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

 

DAWN EDITORIALS

February 5, 2024 (Monday)

Day’s Vocabulary

• Touted.       attempt to sell (something), typically by pestering people in an aggressive or bold manner
• Perfunctory.         (of an action or gesture) carried out with a minimum of effort or reflection
• Despondency.      a state of low spirits caused by loss of hope or courage
• Remunerations. money paid for work or a service
• Whopping. very large

Anti-colonial ally?

Summary

• Russia is perceived as an anti-colonial ally in the Global South, including Africa, despite its imperial past.
• The documentary "Inside Wagner" highlights Russia's anti-West narrative and portrays its mercenaries' actions as sacrifices for stability.
• Pakistan's relationship with Russia is complicated, with attempts to balance ties, but Moscow prioritizes relations with Iran.
• Russia's pro-Palestine stance gains support in the Global South, but its alignment with Iran may lead to political challenges in the Middle East.
• Pro-Russian sentiment is not a major discourse in Pakistan, and Moscow sees the region as already influenced by Russia-friendly Beijing.
• Global South narratives, including anti-colonial sentiment, may impact Pakistan's stance on issues like climate justice, labor rights, and civil resistance.

Article

MANY will recognise the name of the great Russian poet, Alexander Pushkin. Fewer people will know that he is partially of African origin, and that his heritage is routinely touted by Moscow as proof that it is not a European-style imperial power. We may not know this detail, but it is widely appreciated across the Global South, particularly in Africa, where Russia is increasingly valued as an ally helping to balance the excesses of the Global North.

The sense in the Global South that Russia is an anti-colonial ally (despite its imperial past, and its colonising aims in Ukraine) is apparent in the recent documentary Inside Wagner: The Rise of Russia’s Notorious Mercenaries. The film shows how the narrative that Russia is anti-West, and so pro-Global South is becoming entrenched, driven further by Russian propaganda, including the production of slick action films glorifying Wagner and the co-option of African social media influencers. Russian mercenaries’ violent tactics and human rights abuses are reframed as sacrifices in the name of stability, particularly in places like Central African Republic, and swept aside in favour of finally standing up to European (and by extension Western) colonial powers.

Why is this relevant to Pakistan? In some ways, we are an outlier. Russia features less in our public discourse, particularly after former prime minister Imran Khan’s awkwardly timed visit to Moscow on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Khan’s populism was plugged into these emergent global narratives, and he briefly flirted with pro-Putin positioning as an extension of his anti-US stance. However, that flirtation was quickly replaced by military pragmatism and pro-Ukrainian messaging, particularly in the run-up to the IMF deal.

Islamabad of late has tried to better balance its ties with Moscow, with celebrations of 75 years of diplomatic engagement last October, and promises to boost trade ties and security cooperation.

Russia’s anti-US stance will leave it in murky waters.

But the potential for a serious bilateral relationship is complicated, particularly with the Middle East developments. Pakistan has never been a foreign policy priority for Russia, with most engagement from Moscow being perfunctory. Russia’s growing proximity with Iran is another twist: Tehran is allegedly supplying Moscow drones for the Ukraine conflict; Moscow has responded with a pivot towards Palestine in the context of the Israel-Palestine war. This pivot is largely driven by domestic political considerations. As Fiona Hill points out in an interview with Brookings, Moscow is worried that Gaza’s fate will stir memories of violent Russian interventions in Chechnya, and pro-Palestinian positioning is considered a way to appease Russia’s Muslim population. Still, this also facilitates Moscow’s affinity with Tehran.

While Russia’s pro-Palestine positioning will win it more fans across the Global South, its pro-Tehran, anti-US stance will leave it in murky political waters given the post-conflict scenario shaping up in the Middle East. Given plans for a two-state solution to be tabled in exchange for Saudi recognition of Israel — and all the security guarantees that would entail — the current Muslim unity over Palestine’s plight could fragment along the lines of US/ Saudi vs Russia/ Iran.

Where will Pakistan find itself? While Islamabad’s diplomatic balancing act will continue, pro-Russian sentiment is unlikely to become a major feature of public discourse. Indeed, in Moscow’s calculations, ours is a geopolitical space already dominated by Russia-friendly Beijing, and so not worth the effort to shape through overtures and propaganda. But that does not mean that Pak­is­tan is completely disengaged from broa­der Global South narratives.

Pro-Russian narratives in the Global South are in fact anti-colonial and pro-justice. And anti-colonial sentiment will express itself in various ways in an increasingly stressed and resource-scarce world — as demands for climate justice, labour rights, inclusive technology, equitable service delivery and more. Indeed, as authoritarianism creeps, civil resistance will soar. And as I wrote recently, Pakistan is not immune to these trends.

Even during a carefully engineered election cycle, our powers that be have been distracted by civil movements, which they have sought to address through both soft and hard approaches. Wheat subsidies are being deployed to calm tensions in Gilgit-Baltistan, while a security crackdown is intensified in Balochistan. The game of whack-a-mole to manage protest (whether in the form of social and political movements or violent uprisings) will continue in the post-poll settlement as well, and may intensify in response to the political orches­tration of this week. As such, Pakistan is firmly in step with the Global South.

Why vote?

Summary

Focus of articles:

• Pakistan's 2024 elections: Several articles discuss the upcoming elections, including reasons to vote, key factors to watch on election day, and the economic platforms of different parties.
• Other topics: Articles also cover international relations (Afghanistan-China ties), social issues (religious tensions in India, women's political participation), and regional conflicts (Gaza conflict).

Key points about the elections:

• Importance of voting: Despite challenges, voting is seen as crucial for various reasons, including influencing local services, expressing cultural identity, and keeping preferred candidates relevant.
• Uncertainties: Young voters, new voters, and marginal seats are highlighted as indicators to watch on election day for potential surprises.
• Economic concerns: An editorial criticizes the lack of concrete economic plans from major political parties.

Article

RECENT conversations about the upcoming election with university students reflect various degrees of disillusionment and despondency.

For many, voting in an election tarred by a compromised pre-election phase, and an entirely uneven playing field, appears to be a futile act. Actions of the past few months to politically marginalise the PTI and its leaders make it seem like the result is a foregone conclusion. Fair to ask, then, what’s the point of voting, or even having such an election?

The case for voting can be made a number of different ways, as can the case for having an election. But it is worth remembering that people’s relationship to politics in Pakistan differs by class, region, ethnicity, and gender. The case for participation and the importance of an election thus varies widely too.

For voters in rural areas, especially in Punjab, sitting out of an election because of despondency is not a real option. In a five-year cycle, and with the persisting absence of local governments, elections provide the only instrument for negotiating local services and access to the state.

One can plausibly argue that the negotiation for publicly funded projects is done by local elites and for the benefit of local elites, but it is the only time any money will flow into rural communities. This is also why perceptions of a candidate’s chances of winning have a greater impact in shaping the direction of rural voting blocs.

Even in the past, when establishment interference and party crackdowns have taken place, rural turnouts were generally higher than urban ones. Given that politics is organised around local, dynastic families, cascading down from National Assembly and provincial assembly candidates all the way to mini-dynasts at the union council and village level, election-phase contact is higher and the effort to bring voters out is greater.

The anonymity of the voting process is not perfect in Pakistan, but it still offers a chance for throwing up surprises.

In Sindh and KP, elections and the act of voting carry an additional logic, which is that of federalist assertion and cultural expression. This is naturally more pronounced in Sindh, where the PPP campaigns on an explicit platform of provincial autonomy and rights, but even in KP, where the PTI is dominant, there remains an undercurrent of ethno-cultural identity that binds its vote together. In other words, voting remains an expressive act beyond just a strategic or tactical act.

Hence to even consider opting out of the electoral process in some way reveals a relative degree of class and ethnic insulation from the consequences of politics. Most of the country does not have this luxury.

Beyond using the vote as a tool for negotiation or as one for expression, another reason to stay engaged through the ballot box is simply to increase uncertainty around the result. This is much more important when a pre-ordained conclusion is being pushed down from above. As several have written on these pages earlier, the anonymity of the voting process is not perfect in Pakistan, but it still offers a chance for throwing up surprises.

The fact that nearly every adult has access to a cell phone, and that many have access to video-recording capabilities, the likelihood of ballot box stuffing going unnoticed is not very high. In earlier years, the general conception was that rural polling stations can be manipulated by closing them off and moving ballot boxes to undisclosed locations, especially in areas where an unfavoured candidate was posting larger numbers. Something similar was attempted in the Daska by-election a few years ago, and the entire act was transparently caught on video.

Past elections, even when managed through pre-poll ‘adjustments’, have often produced some unexpected results, such as losses of major political figures and parties doing surprisingly better than expected. As an act of resistance, it forces the powers that be to revise their strategies and compels them to think of alternatives.

The existence of electoral opposition to even the best-laid and most carefully planned schemes is one of the reasons why no regime has managed to continue endlessly without collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

Finally, Imran Khan’s continued incarceration and his disqualification is also being cited as a reason for deepening disillusionment. This view, held usually by a segment of his supporters, is that their leader is not going to be allowed back into the political system.

This view goes against the general trend of Pakistan’s political history, especially its recent history. What we have seen repeatedly is that popular support in any shape or form is enough to sustain the political career of politicians, who may have fallen out of favour with the establishment. As long as they command a following, and as long as that following remains reasonably intact enough to keep them relevant on the electoral scene, there will always be a pathway back to power.

The simple reality is that Pakistan’s political system is prone to repeated crises because no one entity — upper-class civilian politicians or the military — has a critical mass of both legitimacy and strength to overpower the entire system. One needs the other to survive in an environment where the economic pie keeps shrinking, and fights over the shrinking pie become more combative.

The entire life cycle of any ‘understanding’ between a section of the political class and the establishment is no more than a couple of years. Conflict between two competing nodes of power is a guaranteed outcome of the way that this hybrid system functions. Today’s favourites will inevitably be tomorrow’s pariahs.

So to keep your favourite in the shot for another stint in power down the line, showcasing support today is necessary. A rigged election might not provide a pathway into power immediately, but a few million votes will keep them in the race for a return when the new regime eventually falls apart.

What to watch for on Feb 8

Summary

Voter turnout:

• Crucial indicator of public trust in election's fairness.
• Historically around 52%, could be lower if people feel their vote doesn't matter.
• High youth turnout could signal upsets and challenge "electables."

New voters:

• Over 23 million added since 2018, mostly young and unaffiliated.
• Could swing the election due to large number and open-mindedness.

Women's participation:

• Gender gap narrowing but still significant (10M fewer female voters).
• Longer lines at women's polling stations could indicate higher participation, benefiting parties with strong female support.

Marginal seats:

• Many tightly contested constituencies with small victory margins.
• Mostly in Punjab, where elections are often decided.
• Four-cornered fights between major parties expected.

Sensitive polling stations:

• Half designated sensitive or highly sensitive due to security risks.
• Vulnerable to violence and disruption, requiring close monitoring.

Election integrity:

• Most important aspect is preventing manipulation and ballot fraud.
• Such actions would undermine democracy and legitimacy of results.

Article

PAKISTAN goes to the polls this week in an exceedingly fraught atmosphere marked by uncertainty about the future. In the country’s 12th general election a record number of 128.5 million voters will decide who forms the next government.

Punjab, of course, has more voters — 73.2m — than those in the other three provinces put together, which makes it the battleground province that will determine the outcome of the national election.

There are 5,113 candidates in the contest for 266 general seats of the 342-member Lower House in the country’s first-past-the-post system. A total number of 12,638 candidates are in the run for assembly seats in the four provinces. There are 313 female contenders for National Assembly seats, the highest ever, but still only 6pc of the total, while 568 female candidates are in the race for provincial assembly seats.

What are the key pointers to watch out for on election day?

Voter turnout: How many people show up at the ballot box will reflect the level of political engagement as well as the health and vitality of Pakistan’s democracy. It will also be a significant indicator of how credible and inclusive the electorate sees the polls, especially in view of widespread public doubts about their fairness.

The average turnout in the last two general elections was around 52pc. In the past four elections it ranged between 51pc (2018), 53pc (2013), 44pc (2008) and 41pc (2002). In the 1990s, which saw four elections in quick succession starting with the one in 1988, turnout averaged 42pc, except in 1997 when it fell to 36pc. In general, turnout usually dropped when people felt their vote would make no difference to the outcome or that the election was ‘pre-determined’. This time if turnout is very low it could indicate a lack of confidence in the election’s integrity and thus undermine the legitimacy of the result.

There will be many indicators on election day of what the outcome might be.

Young voters: The youth bulge among registered voters is now a prominent feature of the electoral landscape. The number of young voters (between ages 18 and 35) today is at a record high — 57m, which is over 47pc of the electorate. This is a potential game-changer.

The heavy presence of young people in queues at polling stations might provide an early indication of how well parties with a youth following will do. In past elections, turnout among younger voters has been low. There are no official statistics on this. But a Gallup Pakistan report, relying on exit polls conducted since 1988, found that usually only a quarter of young voters cast the ballot.

In the past two elections, their participation was a third compared to the average overall turnout of 52pc. But according to the latest youth survey by the Voice of America, 70pc of respondents said they will vote on Feb 8.

Anecdotal evidence also suggests young people are now more motivated to vote. If they do show up in large numbers, it could produce upsets and defy conventional wisdom about the invincibility of ‘electables’ or locally influential candidates.

New voters: Over 23.5m new voters have been added to the electoral rolls since the 2018 election, including over 12m female voters. Thus, new voters constitute 18pc of the electorate. They mostly comprise young voters but possibly also older voters not registered before. This could impart a significant swing factor to the election because many of them may be unaffiliated to any party and open to last-minute canvassing by candidates. This could make the outcome unpredictable in several constituencies.

Women’s participation: 59.3m registered female voters comprise 46.1pc of the electorate even though they account for 49pc of the population. Male voters are 69.2m or 54pc of the electorate. That means there are around 10m more male than female voters, which lays bare the electorate’s persisting gender gap.

Nevertheless, this gap has been steadily narrowing thanks to initiatives by the Election Commission of Pakistan and advocacy groups to increase women’s participation. On voter turnout the gender gap persists. In the 2018 election turnout among women trailed by 10pc from that of men. Male turnout was almost56pc for the NA election, but just over 46pc for female voters.

It would be worth watching whether women’s polling stations on Feb 8 will see longer lines to indicate greater participation which could benefit parties with a stronger female base of support.

Marginal seats: A critical area to watch would be the marginal constituencies. There is a sizeable number of tightly fought seats in Pakistan’s first-past-the-post system. Well over 100 NA seats were won by a plurality, not majority of votes in the 2018 election. Eighty-seven NA seats were won by a margin of less than 1,000 votes, and 26 seats by a margin of under 2,000 votes. In 51 constituencies, the winning candidate’s margin of victory was under 6,000 votes.

Most of these were in Punjab — where general elections are won or lost. With the average size of Punjab’s national constituencies around 900,000 today, these are fragile margins of victory. The overall election result could be determined by what happens in these marginal constituencies, where there may be four-cornered fights between PML-N, PTI-backed candidates, PPP and IPP.

Sensitive polling stations: Half of the 90,675 polling stations across the country have been designated as ‘sensitive’ or ‘most sensitive’ by the ECP. Sensitive means there is a security risk; ‘most sensitive’ denotes a higher risk. Around 27,628 are classified as sensitive and 18,437 as most sensitive, the majority of which are in Punjab followed by Sindh, KP and Balochistan.

That means these polling stations are vulnerable to election violence involving clashes among supporters or attacks by militant groups — the latter principally in KP and Balochistan. Although extra security arrangements are in place for them, they should be closely watched on election day for violence that could disrupt the process.

Of course, the most important aspect of election day would be any instances and evidence of efforts to manipulate the poll result or ballot fraud. That would undermine the democratic exercise, denude the electoral outcome of legitimacy and plunge Pakistan into another period of instability.

Living longer

Summary

• More education leads to longer lifespan: Each additional 2 years of schooling reduces mortality risk by 2%. Completing secondary education cuts risk by 25%, and 18 years of education by 34%.
• Education shapes health behaviors: Higher education increases access to healthcare and healthier lifestyles, further reducing mortality risk.
• Pakistan faces challenges: The country has high out-of-school rates and low educational attainment, impacting health outcomes.
• Investment in education is key: Increased funding and efforts to keep children in school can improve population health and reduce healthcare costs.
• Education and health are linked: Policymakers should view them as interconnected and prioritize both for national well-being.
• Education is an SDG target: Pakistan lags behind in achieving education goals, but increased investment can improve health and well-being.

Article

EDUCATION is a strong determinant of higher remunerations in the course of a lifetime and generally, higher education levels result in increased incomes. For instance, a university graduate is likely to earn more than a college graduate. These higher earnings levels create better health outcomes in terms of longer lifespans, healthy lifestyles and enough funds to spend on health maintenance and improvement activities. However, the link between the years of schooling, adult mortality and longevity has been under-researched. This under-examined connection has been somewhat established recently, and estimates for years of schooling and gains in lifespan were produced in a recent global meta-analysis and systematic review.

The Centre for Global Health Inequities-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Chain-IHEME) issued a global meta-analysis and systematic review that estimates the magnitude of education on mortality risks and lifespans. The study covers 70 locations in 59 countries in 10 languages, including the UK, US, Brazil and China. The findings of the study are far-reaching in terms of policy implications and resources. It goes beyond previous studies on the subject as it is not restricted by time, location and language.

While previous studies on educational inequalities focused on high-income countries, this study includes varied economic contexts and regions and produces estimates of adult mortality in the age group 18 to 70 years. The importance of this analysis lies in its identification of under-examined benefits of education by systematically identifying and quantifying the impact of number of years of education on adult mortality risk at a global level.

Broadly, the review shows that the number of years spent in education have a relationship with longevity and mortality. In this way, education exercises not only protective effects on adult mortality but also serves a longevity-boosting function.

A longer stay at school can add years to life.

According to the study, every two years spent at school or university reduces the risk of mortality by two per cent. For 18 years of education, the mortality risk declines by a whopping 34pc, while completing secondary education cuts the risk by an impressive 25pc. Therefore, you can add more years to your life with a longer stay at school.

Conversely, those missing out on school years or dropping out of school find themselves deprived of health benefits. The report claims that adults not receiving any education face higher risks of ill-health throughout their lives — the effects are comparable to consuming five or more alcoholic drinks daily or smoking 10 cigarettes per day for a decade. It also demonstrates that mortality risk is moderated by health behaviour. Higher education, in turn, shapes access to better healthcare and wholesome lifestyles.

Pakistan has one of the highest number of out-of-school children in the world; the dropout rate is elevated as are school absences. These factors have a direct impact on the number of years spent in education and the cumulative effect on mortality risk and healthy lifespans. In Pakistan, education has, so far, been narrowly conceived. Its impact on mortality risk reduction has not been considered in public health strategies. Therefore, pouring more and dedicated money into education and making concerted efforts to keep children in school and beyond can result in better health outcomes for population health, which, in turn, saves governmental and individual expenditure on health, especially in poor households.

Policymakers and politicians should see both education and health as intimately connected and focus on improving educational outcomes and retaining as large a number of youngsters as possible from school to university — the best investment in health and education.

A strategy that combines education and health will see not only prosperity but also improved health for the nation in the long term. Our younger generations are affected more by education inequalities that plague our education system. Therefore, enhanced schooling policies and increased resources towards education can act as proactive investment in health, which reduces disparities in learning and well-being.

Education is an essential component of the Sustainable Development Goals, which target inclusive and quality education for everyone, gender equality and reduction of inequalities within and between countries. Pakistan has been lagging behind on SDG targets. Dedicating sustained and stipulated funds to education with an ‘education-health’ lens as the bedrock of investment and policies can turn the tide on low educational attainment and associated low health outcomes.