Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

DAWN EDITORIALS

February 9, 2024 (Friday)

Day’s Vocabulary

• Pretence.    an attempt to make something that is not the case appear true
• Imbued.      inspire or permeate with (a feeling or quality)
• Abysmal.    extremely bad; appalling
• Lofty.           of imposing height
• Spectre.       a ghost
• Contractionary.  causing or relating to the contraction of a country's economy

Collecting dust

Summary

• Draft AI policy exists, but not finalized: Introduced in May 2023, but currently collecting dust without public consultation.
• Focus on responsible AI: Aligns with global standards for ethical and responsible use.
• Room for improvement: Lacks emphasis on data privacy, explainability, and diversity/inclusion.
• Challenges: Data availability, infrastructure, funding, and potential conflict with Personal Data Protection Bill.
• Action needed: Effective implementation requires resources, clear goals, and addressing concerns like human rights and data privacy.
• Inspiration from abroad: Examples from Singapore and EU's AI Act can guide Pakistan's approach.
• Next steps: Incoming government should consider feedback and finalize the policy effectively.

Article

ONE cannot deny the prominence artificial intelligence has gained with innovative uses in the political sphere — such as using AI to clone the voice of Imran Khan, who addressed a virtual PTI jalsa from Adiala jail. Activist Usama Khilji recognises the possible use of AI to circumvent political crackdowns but also warns of the “potential abuse” of AI technology, which could lead to misinformation and manipulation of elections. Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi has previously stated that Pakistan recognises the “dual nature” of AI: while equitable and fair access to these new technologies is encouraged, there is concern regarding AI’s unregulated military uses.

Internationally, AI commands the attention of both the public and private sectors — with almost daily updates in legislative instruments, knowledge, and content. Last Friday, 27 countries of the European Union unanimously approved the Artificial Intelligence Act. The EU AI Act is widely described as the world’s first comprehensive law that regulates AI based on its capacity to cause harm. Closer to home, China is noted by some to have initiated the global movement to regulate AI when it introduced its Generative AI guidelines last year.

So where does Pakistan stand on the AI front? The Ministry of IT & Telecom introduced a draft national AI policy in May 2023. The proposed policy is part of the ministry’s Digital Pakistan vision that aims to produce an “overarching developmental agenda” to promote the adoption of AI efficiently and responsibly. The draft aligns with certain global standards for AI, such as its ethical and responsible use. For instance, the ‘triple-helix’ partnership between the research community, industry and government is similar to Singapore’s national AI policy. Singapore was one of the first countries to introduce a national AI strategy.

While the draft AI policy sets the foundation for AI transformation in Pakistan, there is room for improvement. Take, for example, the lack of emphasis on ethical and transparent AI systems. In this regard, one can turn to the ‘Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Frame­work’ introduced by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology. Aiming to govern AI systems and mitigate risks, the framework promotes “trustworthy” AI systems, comprised of characteristics such as explainability, resilience, and data privacy.

Where does Pakistan stand on regulating AI?

An effective AI policy should ideally emphasise concepts of data quality and data privacy. Unfortunately, the cart seems to be placed before the horse. The AI policy proposes an AI directorate to be constituted under a ‘National Commission for Personal Data Protection’. However, the NCPDP is to be established under the Personal Data Protection Bill which is still pending approval by the National Assembly. While the draft AI policy encourages international and bilateral cooperation for AI development, the emphasis on ‘data localisation’ by the PDPB could hamper cross-border data flows.

Other proposals include the establishment of a robust regulatory framework, a ‘National AI Fund’, and ‘centres of excellence’ in AI that will serve as AI innovation hubs. Naturally, these endeavours cannot be viable unless sufficient infrastructure, resources and funds are available. Rather than being a passive regulator, the government of Pakistan will have to actively enable the effective implementation of the AI policy. For example, Singapore’s AI policy states that it had allocated 500 million Singaporean dollars through AI Singapore under the Research, Innovation and Enterprise 2020 and 2025 plans.

Any attempt at AI regulation needs to be more than a hurried response to a global trend and should consider the situation on the ground. The Digital Rights Foundation has stated that the draft AI policy should be human-rights centric. Additionally, the Islamabad Policy Research Institute found that there is “insufficient and controlled” availability of data, which can hamper implementation in different sectors (such as education, climate, and agriculture). The most recurring critique is the absence of any mention of diversity and inclusion.

The draft AI policy was to be finalised by December last year. However, like the PDPB, the proposed AI policy seems to be collecting dust. Contrary to international best practices, the draft AI policy was released without a period of consultation. Since then, critique from those at home and inspiration from those abroad can be used by the incoming government to regulate AI effectively. Hopefully, in its final version, the AI policy won’t just be — as journalist Mutaher Khan puts it — a piece of paper to “serve samosas”.

Health and manifestos

Summary

Health in party manifestos:

• None acknowledge Pakistan's abysmal health indicators, despite promises to improve healthcare.
• Right to health not enshrined in constitution, but PML-N and PPP vow to change that.
• Universal health coverage (UHC) a target, but manifestos lack concrete plans except from JI and PPP (for primary care).
• Low government health spending (1.2% GDP) a major issue, with unrealistic target from PPP (6% GDP).

Party-specific promises:

• PTI: Universal health insurance, electronic health records, public health initiatives. (Manifesto not fully accessible)
• PML-N: Free healthcare for low/middle-income & vulnerable groups, clinics-on-wheels, 90% child immunization by 2029, mental health focus.
• PPP: Health insurance for informal sector workers, digitalization of healthcare, drug regulation reforms, mental health focus.
• JI: Mobile health units, rural dispensaries, no mention of existing facilities.

Overall:

• Manifestos offer mixed messages on healthcare, with more focus on words than concrete plans.
• Public health challenges like population growth and low spending need more attention.
• Voters should critically evaluate parties' healthcare promises in light of Pakistan's reality.

Article

THE health of the 2024 elections is not too far from the health of the nation. Let’s take a look at the manifestos of the main political parties through a health lens.

To start with, the PTI’s manifesto was not available through their website, which was not accessible at the time this article was being written. After many failed attempts to access the website, I decided to move on — like everyone else! The PTI manifesto references in this article come through secondary sources and hence may be incomplete. I had access to the manifestos published by the PML-N, PPP and the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI).

Although a party manifesto is more of a pretence in our politics, it is nevertheless a tool that can help us understand the vision and mindsets of political leaders and their teams. So, dear reader, the rest of this article is imbued with relativism and will rely on reading comprehension. Thank you for your understanding!

At a time when Pakistan is suffering from a serious public health crisis, admittedly among many other challenges, the health of the people does not emerge as one of the key priorities of our aspiring political leaders. For better appreciation of the health crisis, please see my article ‘Dubious distinctions’ published on these pages on Jan 13, 2023. Having said that, I must quickly add that, overall, the status of health in the aforementioned manifestos was not as bad as I thought — as far as words go. The intentions behind the said words is a different matter altogether. There’s the relativism again!

A party manifesto is more of a pretence in our politics.

First of all, none of the parties acknowledged the tragic health conditions our country is so clearly facing — as can be seen from our abysmal national health indicators, which are the lowest in South Asia, and now comparable with those of Sub-Saharan African countries.

The right to health is not properly enshrined in Pakistan’s Constitution to begin with. So, too, was the case with primary education but the 18th Amendment put this right through Article 25A. Health was left out. The good thing is that both the PML-N and PPP have committed themselves to rectifying this. The PML-N has explicitly mentioned amending the Constitution to include the right to healthcare and the PPP has vowed to introduce this right by legislating the Right to Healthcare Act.

Universal health coverage is one of the key targets of the third Sustainable Development Goal and is set to be achieved by 2030. Pakistan’s UHC index for 2022 was 52.7 out of 100. The index is calculated on the basis of 14 select indicators pertaining to access to essential health services. Political parties have not paid heed to achieving this target.

However, the JI has committed itself to the practical implementation of universal healthcare at the legislative level and the PPP has said it will prioritise UHC for primary healthcare (PHC) facilities. The PML-N has promised to provide free-of-cost healthcare services specifically to low- and middle-income households and to vulnerable groups: children, transgender people, senior citizens, and special persons.

One of the fundamental problems in healthcare in Pakistan is the low spending on it by the government — ie, 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2022. The internationally accepted threshold for healthcare spending by governments is at least 5pc of GDP.

In this regard, the PML-N has not made any targeted commitment, while the PPP has set an unrealistic goal to increase healthcare spending to 6pc of GDP or a whopping $20 billion. Mind you, historically, Pakistan’s health budget in terms of percentage of GDP has never touched 2pc. Pakistan only raises about 9-10pc of GDP through taxes. Given the current economic situation, the PPP’s aim to increase the budget for health to 6pc of GDP is a lofty fantasy.

The PTI plans to introduce a unified health card across Pakistan to provide universal health insurance to people — a critical component of UHC. The PML-N also talks about providing universal health insurance, especially to low- and middle-income households, whereas the PPP vows to provide health insurance to workers in the informal sector and their families.

That being said, unhindered population growth — the highest rate in South Asia — and a stagnant total fertility rate are major national issues to consider. Both the PML-N and PPP have dedicated sections on a “sustainable population roadmap” and “population and reproductive health” respectively. The JI, however, does not clearly address family planning.

PHC, with an emphasis on quality and universal access, has also found mention in all the manifestos.

The PML-N has rightly emphasised stunting, which is a huge public health issue that requires multiple and simultaneous development interventions, although most interventions suggested by the party manifestos are nutritional in nature. The intention to improve mental health services and open mental health centres in all districts and tehsil-level hospitals in the country is also expressed. The party also plans to launch clinics-on-wheels for urban slums across the provinces. It aims to increase routine child immunisation to 90pc by 2029.

The PTI wants to develop a comprehensive electronic health records system, and invest in public health initiatives such as vaccination programmes, disease prevention, and health education.

Apart from the points mentioned above, the PPP has also emphasised the digitalisation of healthcare and vowed to introduce reforms in the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan. To its credit, the party has dedicated a separate section in its manifesto to mental health and drug consumption and promises to open mental health centres and provide social protection to mentally ill individuals among other measures.

The JI wants to establish mobile health units and rural health dispensaries for every 5,000 people, with no mention of existing BHUs and RHCs.

In the midst of brutal power plays and moth-eaten democracy, who really cares about party manifestos? Nevertheless, this is what our major political parties are saying about health. Do with this information what you will.

Economic recovery plan

Summary

Pakistan's economic outlook:

• 2023 was tough: political instability, floods, high inflation, and low growth.
• 2024 might not be much better: forecasts predict 2% growth and high inflation.
• Debt is a major problem: high interest payments and low investment hinder growth.
• Development spending is low, impacting education, health, and infrastructure.

Possible solutions:

• Continue IMF program and fiscal tightening (but ease burden on vulnerable groups).
• Structural reforms: tax system, debt management, trade, and climate change.
• Focus on "people-centric" growth: equity, innovation, competitiveness, and transparency.
• Implement a National Economic Recovery Plan (NERP) with 5 key interventions.
• Build climate and economic resilience.

Overall:

• 2024 is a crucial year for Pakistan's future.
• Political consensus and bold reforms are needed for long-term stability and growth.
• A focus on people and climate resilience is essential for a prosperous future.

Article

FOR much of 2023, Pakistan’s economic trajectory fluctuated from default panic to mitigation mode. The road remained rocky with a complex political scene, a population burdened with the devastating aftermath of the 2022 floods, rocketing domestic inflation, and the rupee in free fall against the dollar.

With this backdrop, the government undertook timely tightening of external and domestic financing policy measures, combined with successful negotiations with the IMF, to conclude the critically needed $3 billion Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) until April 2024, a process which helped the country avoid sovereign default. As Pakistan transitions into the new year and moves towards a possible new IMF programme, chronic macroeconomic challenges will require urgent attention by the new government.

Market forecasts for 2024 are not strong, averaging at estimations of two per cent growth, with modest economic recovery. The spectre of inflation looms large, recording 29.7pc in December 2023, and is expected to stay above 20pc in 2024. Unemployment and poverty rates have surged, and foreign reserves are under pressure due to the increasing trade deficit.

Risks posed by low investments, inadequate exports, low productivity, and an energy sector crisis will further hinder sustained recovery. Inadequacies in the taxation system, if not addressed, will make it difficult for the next government to mobilise domestic resources to finance any promised development spending. Additional borrowing for these expenditures will not be a sustainable option.

Beyond the life of the current IMF SBA, the scale of financing required for Pakistan’s external payments is enormous. Of its total $260bn debt, $116bn is external. The high interest expense relative to fiscal revenue poses high risks to debt sustainability. The net debt stock is projected to remain high at 70pc of GDP, and interest expense as a fraction of revenue is projected to remain at 45pc.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s development expenditure — on activities related to education, health, and more — remains under 3pc, as do capital stock, public investment efficiency, and tax-to-GDP ratios compared to regional peers.

Achieving a growth target higher than 2pc will require a painful but necessary shift in the national economic and financial policy paradigm.

One way out of this challenging outlook is to continue with the contractionary fiscal measures, including high indirect taxation and reduction in public sector expenditures on social services delivery. However, the potential adverse impact of such policies on the most vulnerable segments of the population necessitates a shift towards more people-centric economic policies rooted in economic justice.

The United Nations Development Programme’s Integrated SDG Insights Report of 2023 showed Pakistan on track to achieve only 35 out of 169 Sustainable Development Goals targets. If Pakistan is to reduce the number of people living in poverty from 6.1 million to 3.9m by 2030, it will need a comprehensive ‘SDG Push’ comprising an integrated set of high-intensity economic reforms and accelerator pathways, especially in the areas of taxation and revenue, sustainable debt management, and climate finance.

UNDP’s Asia-Pacific Regional Human Development Report 2024, also notes that, to unlock new drivers of growth, Pakistan will need to recalibrate and pivot growth strategies to fintech and agri-tech, with reform as the lynchpin of economic resilience.

Achieving a growth target higher than 2pc will require not only maintaining current fiscal policies, but also a political consensus to undertake long overdue structural reforms. It will require a painful but necessary shift in the national economic and financial policy paradigm — from one that is overburdened by and mainly servicing the debt, to a model of resilient and inclusive growth that is driven by equity-based revenue generation, innovative financing (SDG investments and climate capital), competitive productivity, and strong measures of transparency.

It will require easing the disproportionate economic burden placed on marginalised segments of the population. And finally, it will build institutional and community resilience to future climate shocks.

Through our partnership for the ‘Prosperity for Pakistan’ initiative, UNDP and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute are jointly approaching political, economic, government, and multilateral actors to advocate that a well-coordinated, carefully calibrated, and timely response by the new government — together with parliamentary political parties and key stakeholders — can develop a consensus for a mid-term National Economic Recovery Plan (NERP) to achieve long-term stabilisation and people-centred growth.

Advised by leading Pakistani economists, exp­e­­rienced practitioners and policy experts, the NERP proposes five high-impact policy interventions:

1.      Ensure solvency, revenue and fiscal sustainability (continuation of IMF programme; SDG-ali­gned public finance management, rightsizing state-owned enterprises, tax and pension reforms);

2.     Bend the political economy of Pakistan to­­w­ards economic justice and good governance (critical reforms in the National Finance Commission and local government laws/ structures);

3.     Reduce deficit through inclusive growth and effective import-export management (competitive and diversified trade regime);

4.    Transition to green economy (focused interventions on climate finance, disaster-risk insurance, and water and energy efficiency);

5.     Ensure social protection and social safety nets to minimise the adverse impact of structural reforms on the most vulnerable.

The new government will also need to focus on the interplay between climate change and existing economic vulnerabilities in Pakistan, and adopt a climate-economic-resilience framework to tackle it head-on.

It could potentially work on building a credit line from the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust while negotiating a new loan programme, and secure Pakistan’s financial resilience and debt sustainability.

The year 2024 offers a unique opportunity for Pakistan’s political and policy elite to craft a new political, economic and social contract that rebuilds trust between the people and the institutions that serve them, pivots the country towards economic resilience, and places it back on an ambitious development pathway towards a prosperous and resilient Pakistan.

Whither Karachi

Summary

Karachi's decline:

• Once a clean, livable city, Karachi has lost its grandeur due to various factors.
• Possible reasons include:
• Politicization of administration
• Mismanagement and poor planning
• Corruption
• Neglect of infrastructure
• Lack of sense of belonging among residents

Karachi's potential:

• Despite the challenges, Karachi has a strong economic base and diverse population.
• It has the potential to be a modern and cosmopolitan metropolis.

Future of Karachi:

• The author expresses hope that the new government will focus on improving Karachi's livability and addressing the root causes of its decline.
• The outcome of the recent national elections might impact Karachi's future development.

Additional notes:

• The article mentions Karachi's history as a migrant city and the different perspectives on how that has impacted its development.
• The author emphasizes the importance of good governance and planning for Karachi's revival.

Article

AS was expected, Karachi was at the centre of all speeches at the event organised by the Theosophical Society to celebrate the 134th birth anniversary of the city’s first mayor Jamshed Nusserwanjee. It warmed my heart to hear about Mr Nusserwanjee’s services to the people of Karachi. What emerged was that we owe a lot to the non-Muslim communities for making the city what it became — a clean, elegant and liveable place with the biggest concentration of educational institutes, health facilities and economic activities.

Speaker after speaker admitted that the city had lost its greatness. The current mayor, Murtaza Wahab, conceded his failure by informing the audience that he often had to cover Nusserwanjee’s bust in his office with a piece of cloth so that all the evils that have visited Karachi were not visible to his august predecessor.

At the event, there was a lot of talk about the need for people to have a sense of ownership of and belonging to the city. Along with this, there was much mention of the compassion that Mr Nusserwanjee and his ilk had shown to animals that coexisted with the men and women.

The question that needs to be asked is what caused these feelings to vanish. There is a point of view that the main factor responsible for why no one owns Karachi or has a sense of belonging to it is the composition of its population, Karachi has become primarily a city of migrants who come here to make a living and go home to be buried when they die. Karachi is like the proverbial milch cow that is valued to the extent that it serves the purpose of those who come here. Hence it is regarded as a workplace and not a home.

The city has come to be regarded as a workplace, not a home.

However, another opinion differs saying that Karachi has always been a migrants’ city since it was described as such in the Gazetteer of 1941 that the British administrators wrote after studying the area under their jurisdiction. This has always been the case as is indicated by the fact that the city’s population has grown by leaps and bounds and much faster than what the natural birth rate would account for. This migration has made Karachi a cosmopolitan city. That did not prevent the development of the city when the city fathers wanted it. Those of us who have lived in Karachi for decades have been witness to this jerky growth. Thus the city’s population jumped from 434,887 in 1941 to 1,137,667 in 1951 after the influx of migrants from India. Again there was a massive increase in the population from 9,802,134 in 1998 to 16 million in 2017.

If anything, migration has created a diversity that has enriched the city’s culture and made the people versatile and tolerant of multiculturalism. There is no doubt that these characteristics have made Karachi more interesting, more creative intellectually and technologically as well as economically productive, attracting people from near and far. No wonder Karachi is said to generate 56 per cent of the revenues the Pakistani government collects from all over the country, while 50pc of national export earnings and 96pc of the sales tax of Sindh comes from Karachi.

What then stops Karachi’s rulers from making the city liveable as it was many years ago? The most plausible reason for the decline in Karachi’s fortunes is no doubt the politicisation of the administration of the city, combined with mismanagement, poor planning, and corruption. This has cumulatively led to the neglect of the city. This neglect translates into confusion, irksome issues that make day-to-day living a challenge, the breakdown of law and order, and divisions among the people. Who benefits from this state of affairs? Those who do not want Karachi to emerge as a powerful political force as it was before Ayub Khan shifted the capital from Karachi to Islamabad. Thereafter, constant meddling by the powers that be and the resultant polarisation of public opinion in the city has made Karachi ungovernable, leaving no room for the planned development of the city.

In such circumstances, it is inevitable that corrupt and exploitative forces step in to fill the vacuum. The rich use their wealth to provide for their own needs, while the poor suffer as their needs go unattended. They do not receive even the compassion that animals were shown in days of yore. This intensification of inequality and poverty has made Karachi insecure, unstable and a difficult megacity to live in. Infighting at the national level is also reflected at the city level. After all, the present incumbent in the mayor’s office did not have smooth sailing at the hustings. What yesterday’s national elections have in store for Karachi, we shall soon know. It is a pity that this city had becomes a bone of contention because of its potential to emerge as a modern and cosmopolitan metropolis.