Dawn Editorials (with Summary and Vocabulary)

 

DAWN EDITORIALS

February 7, 2024 (Wednesday)

Day’s Vocabulary

• Debilitating.         (of a disease or condition) making someone very weak and infirm
• Insouciance.         casual lack of concern; indifference
• Nigh. at or to a short distance away
• Crimped.    compress (something) into small folds or ridges
• Chastening.          (of a rebuke or misfortune) having a restraining or humbling effect
• Reticent.     not revealing one's thoughts or feelings readily
• Lurk. (of a person or animal) be or remain hidden so as to wait in ambush for someone or something
• Poignant.   evoking a keen sense of sadness or regret

Darkness at Noon?

Summary

• Pakistan's upcoming elections are overshadowed by doubts and accusations.
• Imran Khan's party faces limitations and legal challenges.
• Nawaz Sharif's potential victory might lack legitimacy due to external influence.
• Pakistan has a troubled history with democracy.
• Frequent military interventions and manipulated elections have hindered progress.
• Lack of strong parties with clear agendas is another hurdle.
• The author calls for the establishment to step back and allow a genuine democratic process.
• This is seen as crucial for Pakistan's future and progress.
• The alternative is stagnation and potential instability.

Article

RECENT events have made it exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to take tomorrow’s election seriously. It’s not just the rat-a-tat sentencing of Imran Khan in the cipher, Toshakhana and iddat cases, but the entire process of decimating his party and debilitating its electoral prospects — by those who helped to propel the PTI into power in 2018.

What’s more, to underline the absurd aspect of the exercise, the same chubby chappie who was — not for the first time — stripped of the right to hold political office back then, is now more or less guaranteed the prime ministerial post for a fourth time. Even his third stint as PM was unprecedented, but evidently the ‘three strikes and you’re out’ rule doesn’t apply. This isn’t baseball, after all. But then, nor is it cricket.

One can only wonder whether Nawaz Sharif realises that he is potentially being set up for another fall. If his Noon League — as the PML-N is commonly known, given the alphabet soup of Muslim League incarnations — wins outright, its legitimacy will be undermined from the outset. The hybridity will remain intact. The political stagnation and stagflation on the economic front will carry on, amid appeals for bailouts from the IMF and other dubious benefactors.

Pakistan’s relationship with democracy has always been fraught. The first general elections weren’t held until 23 years after independence, whereas India had gone that way in 1951-52. Pakistan intended to follow suit before the end of that decade, but its plan was interrupted by the nation’s first military coup, led by a general (later field marshal) who deemed the nation’s climate unconducive to democracy.

There’s no hope until democracy’s allowed to take its course.

The first general elections had to wait until Ayub Khan was overthrown and were postponed until December 1970 because the October schedule was disrupted by a climatic disaster in East Pakistan. The cyclone/ tsunami was one of the most devastating recorded, and West Pakistan’s insouciance effectively sealed the geographically divided nation’s fate. The Awami League’s absolute majority was rejected by the military rulers with the collusion of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose PPP had done better than it hoped for in Punjab and Sindh.

Notwithstanding his Machiavellian streak, Bhutto was indeed Pakistan’s first elected PM, the first democratically chosen repository of high hopes, only a few of which were met. The 1977 polls paved his path to the gallows: the military struck just as the government and opposition, after substantial unrest, had agreed on rerunning the disputed polls. The nation’s darkest hour was nigh, and the cloud didn’t lift until Gen Ziaul Haq was died in a mid-air explosion in 1988.

It never lifted completely, though. The pointless partyless elections of 1985 established a pattern whereby clannish allegiances superseded party politics. In 1988, the ISI sponsored the IJI as a vehicle for Nawaz Sharif. It failed federally, but conquered Punjab, and Benazir Bhutto’s first administration was undermined and then dismissed a couple of years later, but Nawaz met much the same fate in 1993; the PPP got a second go before the PML-N returned with a landslide based on a low turnout in 1996. Nawaz considered himself strong enough to handpick his establishment partners, an illusion shattered by the coup of 1999. Pervez Musharraf vowed to exclude Nawaz and Benazir from politics forever, but was obliged by his Western benefactors to cave in less than a decade later.

Readers don’t need to be reminded of what came next, beyond the obvious observation that the establishment remained the chief political arbiter. After throwing out Nawaz for a third time, bets were placed on a relative outsider. Akin to the Trump phenomenon, it helped to build up a personality cult that incorpo­r­ated illusions but no noticeable achievements. But by the time it was decided to bury Imran Khan under the usual ‘incompetence and corruption’ charges, the backlash was bigger than what the establishment expected.

I have never found any reason to admire Imran as a contender on the political playfield even before he aligned himself with the establishment. It’s hard to see any reason, though, for his PTI to be denied the courtesies afforded to its main adversaries, such as a familiar poll symbol. What’s more disturbing is that none of the leading political parties stands for very much beyond vague promises and the personalities of their leaders. The world’s fifth most populous nation, with its enormous youth bulge, deserves better.

Unlike the now beleaguered Bushra Bibi, I cannot claim to foretell the future. But even lesser beings can foresee that Pakistan will not progress unless the establishment steps back and allows democracy to take its wayward course. The alternative is repeated power failures and, on the day after tomorrow, darkness at high Noon.

Restructuring debt

Summary

Pakistan's debt situation:

• High external and domestic debt burden, making it difficult to fund basic expenditures.
• External debt: $102 billion, 35% of GDP, with maturities concentrated in the near future.
• Domestic debt: Servicing consumes 90% of annual budget allocated for interest payments.

Debt restructuring challenges:

• No quick fixes, requires long-term reforms and painful policy adjustments.
• Multilateral debt (44%) has concessional rates, making restructuring difficult.
• Bilateral debt (41%): Complexities with China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and commercial debt.
• Domestic debt: Banks may need to bear burden through reduced interest rates, write-downs, etc.

Possible solutions:

• External debt:
• Present a plan for long-term reforms to creditors.
• Seek write-downs or reprofiling of debt under IMF program.
• Domestic debt:
• Gradual approach combining negative real interest rates, moratoriums, maturity extensions, and write-downs.
• Concessional loans or relaxed regulations for banks to restore capital base.
• Higher tax on bank incomes as a last resort.

Overall:

• The new government will face a challenging economic situation with limited room for maneuver.
• Addressing the debt burden requires tough reforms and cooperation from creditors and domestic stakeholders.

Article

THE future servicing of external and domestic debts has become a huge undertaking, having crimped our ability to even fund operational expenditures.

The reason for this concern is not just because of the enormity of the task, as shown below, but also because the IMF, which continues to consider our debt sustainable, says in its report on the first review that “The overall risk of sovereign stress is high, reflecting a high level of vulnerability from elevated debt and gross financing needs and low reserve buffers”.

There is nothing wrong with borrowing. It creates opportunities for a more productive economy. The issue in our case has been the funding of wasteful expenditures and low priority, poorly designed projects. The result is that gross public debt today at 82 per cent of GDP is 667pc of revenues against an average of 214pc for more than a dozen comparators, while the external debt is 328pc of exports of goods and services as against the average of 64pc for these comparators.

The external debt, contracted in the first 67 years since independence, has exploded, doubling in the last seven-odd years to reach $102 billion (35pc of GDP). Around 22pc has a maturity of less than one year, 32pc between two to five years and 22pc greater than 10 years. In 2022-23, its servicing requirement was $20.8bn, 8.6pc of exports of goods and services of which the share of government plus government-guaranteed debt was $18.7bn. In 2023-24, we need to repay $20.3bn.

The prospects of the economy generating the resources to discharge the obligations that have to be defrayed in the near future do not look auspicious, which could transmute into an actual declaration of default. And any prospects for recovery depend on the progress of the restoration of debts to manageable levels.

So, what are the possible options available for the restructuring of this external debt?

What are the options available for restructuring our external and domestic debts?

To begin with, there is a need to recognise that debt-restructuring is complex. There are no quick emergency fixes or shortcut solutions. And seeking debt relief is a chastening experience with the policy action requirements painful, especially for low-income households.

Whereas roughly 30 low-income countries are facing a heightened risk of over-indebtedness, only four to five have, to date, sought restructuring, with negotiations lasting more than a year. The case of Zambia is instructive. After two years, a deal has been struck for only 34pc of the debt, but can only go into effect if private lenders agree to take a similar hit. This has been blocked by Blackrock, that charged risk premium interest rates but still insist on being paid in full and are legally covered by New York state laws.

Much of our debt (44pc) is owed to multilaterals (IMF, the World Bank, Asian Development Bank). A significant proportion of this debt is at highly concessional rates, which makes these institutions preferred creditors whose lending cannot be restructured or rescheduled under the present scheme of things.

The share of bilateral debt is 41pc. Out of this stock of debt, that of the Paris Club members (OECD-plus Japan), which was eligible for rescheduling in 2001-02, is repayable in the latter half of the 2030s. This leaves us with the Chinese, Saudis and the UAE (who are not members of the Paris Club) and commercial debts (12pc of debt of which the share of bonds is 66pc) to deal with.

The terms and conditions of Chinese lending are not fully transparent. So far, the Chinese have been rolling over repayments when they become due (around $8bn), but are reluctant to accept losses on their lending portfolio. Another complication is how to categorise a Chinese lending institution — bilateral or commercial?

There is also the complication of the seniority principle, likely to be invoked in the case of foreign currency swaps (including the Chinese version), and Chinese, Saudi and UAE deposits with the State Bank.

The recent experience of the Sri Lankan debt restructuring indicates that the principle of parity/ equal treatment of major creditors has to be followed (all have to participate to take a haircut), consistent with IMF’s debt sustainability analysis, ie, the country has to be in a Fund programme.

However, even to be able to seek some write-down of the external debt or its reprofiling will, to enable the building of a case with the creditors, require a) us to present our plan of long-overdue fundamental reforms (as a precondition) that we will embark upon to demonstrate to the lenders our commitment to prevent the return of conditions requiring debt relief; and b) similar adjustments that will have to be made in domestic debt.

The case of domestic debt is equally stark. The servicing of the interest on this debt consumes 90pc of the annual budgetary allocations for interest payments, requiring mobilisation of a primary surplus of more than 7pc of GDP!

Banks being the largest lenders to a bankrupt borrower will also have to bear the burden of this pain. The reduction of this debt will require a gradual approach, involving a combination of negative real interest rates, a moratorium/ suspension of interest payments for, say, two years, extension of the maturity period and even some write-down of its face value.

A substantial reduction in face value will erode the capital base of banks, whose restoration will likely require loans to them at concessional rates and/ or a short-term relaxation of the State Bank’s prudential regulations on capital adequacy.

The last option, although not ideal, could be a higher tax rate on bank incomes.

To conclude, those vying for power will soon discover that the dire challenges lying ahead will give little, if any, room for manoeuvrability.

‘Liberal’ without gender equality

Summary

• Israeli women's rights under attack:
• New far-right government led by Netanyahu.
• Only 6 women in 32-member cabinet.
• Parties in coalition oppose women in elections.
• Potential for mandatory gender segregation and limitations on women's business access.
• Religious courts could gain more power, impacting divorce rights.
• Israel's ranking on gender equality dropped significantly:
• From 60th to 83rd on World Economic Forum's Gender Gap Index.
• Few women in senior tech and management positions.
• Concerns about Israel's claim to being a liberal democracy:
• Policies seem to contradict liberal principles.
• Ultra-conservative government may view Palestinians as sub-human.
• Recent actions against Supreme Court raise questions about separation of powers.
• Author argues Israel's democracy is a "puppet show":
• Trappings of democracy don't guarantee its substance.
• Public may be misled by superficial appearances.

Article

EVER SINCE Israel began its offensive in Gaza, Israeli propaganda has produced social media content that shows the female soldiers of the Israeli Defence Forces as models of liberated womanhood. Photos of Israeli women parading with their weapons often on tanks and other military vehicles are proliferating as Israel wants to show how they fight side by side with the men.

What is absent from this picture is the crackdown on women’s rights that has characterised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right Likud party-led government.

In the year preceding the Oct 7 attack, Israeli women’s groups were demanding attention towards how the government was determined to take away the rights of the women of Israel. Interviews given by leaders of women’s groups and even a former minister for social equality in the government preceding the current dispensation provided some insight into what life is like within a country, which is raining death and devastation on the people of Gaza.

In the months immediately following the Likud win and the coming to power of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli women so feared attacks on women’s rights that a large number of women’s groups came together to form a coalition to fight back. Among the factors that they found troubling was that out of 32 ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet only six were women and that two of the parties that had been included in the coalition were so orthodox and regressive that they did not want women to contest elections at all.

A part of the discrimination the women’s groups expected to face was mandatory gender segregation in public spaces. This is because members of the very far right that do not field women to compete in elections also refuse to use public transportation if women are present; they have long sought all public transportation to be completely segregated so that men and women are not in the same bus at all.

The women are also worried that laws would be passed allowing private businesses to ban women altogether, meaning that businesses that cater to the ultra-orthodox could prevent women from even entering stores they frequent.

Another tremendous concern is that the Likud party promises to provide more rights to the rabbinic courts that oversee the laws of marriage, divorce, inheritance, etc. The issue here is that some ultra-conservative interpretations of Jewish law say that women have no right of divorce at all. These interpretations say that a woman just does not have the right to divorce unless a ‘no-objection’ document is provided by the husband.

Naturally, in situations in which a woman wants a divorce, this document is not easily obtained. This means that women who have been separated from husbands for decades cannot remarry and are caught in a legal limbo if they want a religiously valid divorce. Naturally, changes made to divorce laws have the potential to have a huge impact on women.

A part of the discrimination Israeli women’s groups expect to face is mandatory gender segregation in public spaces.

The relatively low numbers of women in government has made many lifelong activists anxious about how decades of their hard work had just been erased with ultra-right parties finding room to discriminate against women so openly. Although Israel does not have a written constitution, the principles of gender equality are embedded in the law.

However, this is hardly enforced as can be seen in political parties that do not allow women to contest in elections. Many would argue that allowing such anti-women practices would cast doubt on the legitimacy of the government itself.

In September 2023, The Jerusalem Post indicated that a lot of the women’s fears had come true and Israel’s record on gender equality had become worse in the space of a year. The country fell from 60th to 83rd place on the World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index.

For all the boastful statements Netanyahu makes about Israel being a “start-up nation” there are actually very few women in senior positions in the tech sector. This is apparently true of the private sector at large where heads of companies in even middle to senior management are largely men. With the Likud government uninterested in following the principles of gender equality, it follows this discrimination is seeping into many spheres of governance and work.

All of this is important because so much of the pleas being made by the US in order to maintain support for Israel is that it is a liberal democracy, just like Norway or Sweden. However, judging from the positions taken by the people that make up the cabinet, it appears that the policies that the Likud-led government stands for even within Israel are hardly those that follow liberal principles. If anything, these policies should underscore the reality of Israel which was turning ultra-conservative even before the Hamas attack.

It is entirely possible that this coalition of ultra-orthodox retrogressive politicians that care little or nothing about equality have declared Palestinians more or less sub-human. If these discriminatory policies show that Israel is far from a liberal nation and has no inclination to champion equality of any sort, their assault on their own supreme court further establishes that they have at best a minimalist concept of democracy rather than any notion of separation of powers. The generative principle of Israel seems to be to wage a war which is what it is doing in the most bloodthirsty and illegal manner.

The trappings of democracy, courts, parliament, elections, etc, do not deliver democracy if they become simply a gift wrap for other uglier and more destructive notions. All they do is present a puppet show where all the audience is imagined as small children who do not grasp that there are strings attached to the puppets with invisible people controlling them.

Media and mental health

Summary

Mental health in Pakistan:

• Millions of Pakistanis suffer from mental illness, but there are few mental health professionals.
• Media can play a crucial role in raising awareness and reducing stigma.

Media's responsibility:

• Accurately portray mental health issues, treatment, and mental health professionals.
• Avoid harmful stereotypes and promote hope for recovery.
• Collaborate with mental health experts for content creation and review.

Positive examples:

• Dramas like Udaari, Pinjra, and Dil Na Umeed To Nahin addressed mental health sensitively.
• They humanized victims, promoted empathy, and offered hope.

Call to action:

• Media and mental health professionals should work together for responsible storytelling.
• This can raise awareness, affect perceptions, and improve mental health conversations.

Article

A SCENE from a Pakistani television drama shows an emotionally fraught woman, begging a psychiatrist to give her something that will make her feel numb. The psychiatrist agrees, prescribing medications and providing suggestions for ways to relax.

In its way, the scene shows progress in Pakistan, a normalisation on popular television of the help that mental health professionals can provide. Yet as much as we might wish there was a simple medication to eradicate disturbing behaviour and unpleasant feelings, the scene oversimplifies the complexities underlying mental illness. In the end, it is another missed opportunity to clear up misconceptions about what mental illness is and what it is not. It also misrepresents what a seasoned mental health professional would say and do in such a situation.

Conservatively, an estimated 15 million Pakistanis suffer from some form of mental illness, roughly one of every 16 people. Yet the burden of meeting their treatment needs falls on some 400 trained psychiatrists and a handful of fully trained child and adolescent psychiatrists. Their task, which includes educating people about mental illness, clarifying misperceptions, and integrating mental health into the broader healthcare system beyond providing direct patient care, can seem overwhelming. All of this has been further intensified by the global havoc wreaked by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The media, effectively used, can help. Media outlets have the power to shape the perception of the audience. For many, it’s a major source of information, consumed with great fervour. In Pakistan, a country severely short of professional mental healthcare, the media can and must play a dual role — to accurately present the scope and nature of the mental health crisis, and to provide information and narratives that can help both those suffering from mental illness and those trying to help them.

Content creators can foster hope of recovery.

To take a step further, both the news media and television dramas should team up with mental health professionals who can help them get these depictions right — the representation of mental health issues, the role of treatment, and the importance of therapeutic relationships. Ongoing collaboration between content creators, media production, and mental health experts can extend from content creation to content critique and review after shows have aired. Most importantly, by seeking the help of experts, content creators can avoid inadvertent harmful stereotypes and foster hope of recovery.

The media have played an important part in bringing to life the experiences, pain, and suffering of those affected by mental health issues. However, often overlooked is how medical and mental health professionals are portrayed. Frequently, they are shown as distant or judgemental rather than engaged and professional.

Just as it is important to highlight the impact of adversity and destitution on human psychological health and the expression of mental illness, it is also essential to portray the compassion, knowledge, and effectiveness of quality mental health professionals in treating those who need their help most.

People are too often reticent to seek help for social and cultural reasons. Issues of trauma, domestic violence, and childhood physical and sexual abuse lurk in the shadows, whispered in hushed tones for far too long. They are now finally being talked about out loud. However, this requires thoughtfulness, and consultation with professionals to ensure accuracy so the mentally ill are not further marginalised, stigmatised, blamed, or re-traumatised. For the popular media, this is a heavy burden to bear: to talk about the unspoken horrors of violence and trauma in a sensitive way that doesn’t normalise or glamorise bad behaviour, corruption, wickedness, and in some instances, just plain evil.

Some television drama series have done this in a sensitive and thoughtful manner, and tackled the topics of child abuse, youth substance use, parenting challenges, and trafficking with grace and accuracy. Udaari, Pinjra, and Dil Na Umeed To Nahin have taken steps in the right direction. They humanised the victims of trauma and the subsequent psychological manifestations, and promoted empathy. They were able to provide hope, and poignant performances elevated art to mastery.

After years of being shrouded in silence, the challenges and scope of mental illness are emerging in conversations across Pakistan. Now, media and mental health professionals should work towards creating responsible content that aligns with the duty of ethical reporting and responsible storytelling. We all learn from stories and there is no better way to secure attention, affect perceptions, and promote awareness.