World in Brief - The Economist Roundup

 

World in Brief

The Economist Roundup

February 3, 2024

“If you harm an American, we will respond,” Joe Biden said after America launched several air strikes at military sites in Iraq and Syria. According to US Central Command, they were targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “and affiliated militia groups”. Iranian state news reported that at least ten people have died in Syria. The strikes come less than a week after drones launched by militants killed three American soldiers in Jordan.

 

America added 353,000 jobs in January, nearly double what analysts forecast. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. The hot labour market and strong wage growth may encourage the Federal Reserve to further put off interest-rate cuts. On Wednesday policymakers held the bank’s main rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. It is expected to hold them for a fifth consecutive meeting in March.

 

Meta’s market value increased by $197bn to $1.2trn, the biggest ever one-day gain on Wall Street. Shares in the social-media firm surged by 20% on Friday after it revealed bumper fourth-quarter results and announced its first-ever dividend. Similarly, a positive earnings report from Amazon boosted the e-commerce giant’s shares by 8%. America’s S&P 500 share index closed at a record high.

 

More than 800 officials in America and multiple countries in Europe signed the first joint letter criticising their governments for their positions on the war in Gaza. They warned that their support for Israel could amount to “grave violations of international humanitarian law” and risked making them complicit in one of “the worst human catastrophes of this century”. The signatories did not disclose their identities.

 

Pakistan’s army said it killed 24 militants in three days in Balochistan province, near the border with Afghanistan, after they launched attacks in the towns of Mach and Kolpur. The Balochistan Liberation Army, a separatist group, claimed responsibility for the attacks. Four law enforcement personnel and two civilians were also killed. Pakistan will hold a general election next week.

America tries to halt the Gaza war

America’s Middle East shuttle diplomacy will intensify next week when Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, returns to the region to attempt to wind down the Gaza war and negotiate a wider peace. He follows close behind Brett McGurk, President Joe Biden’s Middle East adviser, and William Burns, the CIA director.

Mr Blinken will be pursuing interlocking agreements. First, pause the fighting for one to two months to permit the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Then turn the pause into a permanent ceasefire. Then push a regional peace based on Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state, Palestinian reform, Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel and American commitments to sweeten the whole deal.

Each step is daunting. America is pressuring Israel’s far right: on February 1st it imposed sanctions on four Jewish settlers accused of attacking Palestinian civilians. But questions abound. Would America squeeze Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister? And what to do about Hamas?

Joe Biden’s first contest

South Carolina will hold this year’s first official Democratic primary on Saturday. After the state’s Democratic voters set him on the path to the presidency in 2020, Joe Biden pushed to notch the Palmetto State up to the top slot. Without serious challengers, the president will no doubt win there this weekend. But come the general election in November, his odds are worse: the state has not plumped for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976.

Democrats are not aiming to flip South Carolina from red to blue. But the party’s primary still has national implications: a good showing in this early contest could calm Democrats’ nerves about losing their appeal among black voters. Jim Clyburn, a popular black congressman from the state, is the co-chairman of Mr Biden’s re-election campaign. The administration hopes his repeat endorsement will help the Democrats pick up momentum. Voters in nearby swing states, like Georgia and North Carolina, who head to the polls in March, will be watching.

A big moment for Northern Ireland

If, as seems almost certain, Michelle O’Neill becomes the first minister of Northern Ireland on Saturday, for the first time in the province’s 103-year history it will be led by a nationalist. Not just any nationalist, but a vice-president of Sinn Féin, which was the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, a terrorist group that fought a bloody campaign against the British army and police from 1969 to 1997.

Her elevation comes after her party overtook the Democratic Unionist Party as the biggest in the devolved legislature, in 2022. Since then the pro-British DUP had been blocking a government in a row over post-Brexit trading arrangements. An agreement was clinched on Thursday.

Ms O’Neill will be hemmed in by her deputy first minister, from the DUP, who will carry identical powers to hers. All the same, Ms O’Neill’s new title signals a dramatic shift. Northern Ireland will now be led by a person who does not want it to exist, showing how far Unionism has declined in recent years.

Weekend profile: Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s leader

On January 23rd Nayib Bukele wrote on X: “He who saves his country violates no law.” The quote—usually attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte—was referring to Mr Bukele’s harsh crackdown on gangs. But it could equally apply to his second consecutive term as president, which he is sure to win when Salvadoreans vote on Sunday.

El Salvador’s constitution clearly bars a second consecutive term in office. But Mr Bukele got the constitutional chamber of the Supreme Court to deem it viable if he stepped down from power in November. He did so on paper—but he still runs the country.

There has been little pushback because the 42-year-old leather-jacket-sporting president is by far the most popular leader in Latin America. Much of that is thanks to his hardline gang policies. He has made El Salvador safer, even as he violates human rights.

But his dominance over Salvadoran politics is also due to his tactical rise to power, and the way he has taken control of all levers of it. Born to a well-off family of Palestinian descent, Mr Bukele dropped out of university to run his father’s advertising agency, honing the communications skills that would bolster his political career.

In 2011 he was elected as a local mayor, and then as mayor of the capital, San Salvador. In June 2019 he became president. Since then he has used strong-arm tactics to get his way. In February 2020, for example, he entered the assembly with soldiers to force lawmakers to approve his security budget. And once his New Ideas party won a majority in the assembly in February 2021, he gradually co-opted the state, replacing judges on the supreme court and the attorney-general who was investigating allegations of government corruption. His crackdown on crime relies on a never-ending state of emergency, with mass round-ups and hearings. El Salvador looks every day less like a democracy.

But that does not bother a president who controls the narrative. He mocks critics and deploys trolls to harass them further. He announces new policies on social media. One expert reckons that he needs just 12 hours to get the country talking about a topic, compared with the 500 hours it takes for the opposition. As he closes in on a second term Mr Bukele says he does not want to stay indefinitely. That may well change.