Analysis - US Sanctions on Pakistan

 

US Sanctions on Pakistan: Implications for Regional Stability and Global Alliances

The latest U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile program underscore growing tensions between Washington and Islamabad. While the sanctions aim to curb weapons proliferation, their broader impact could drive Pakistan closer to China, further destabilizing South Asia and reshaping geopolitical alignments.

Background

On December 18, 2025, the United States imposed sanctions under Executive Order 13382, targeting four Pakistani entities, including the state-owned National Development Complex. This marks the fourth round of sanctions within 14 months, following actions against Chinese entities for allegedly supporting Pakistan's missile program. These sanctions are notable as the first to target a state-owned company in Pakistan.

The U.S. rationale, articulated by Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, alleges that Pakistan’s missile advancements pose a potential long-range threat beyond South Asia, including to the U.S. Pakistan’s longest-range missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of 2,750 km but falls far short of intercontinental capabilities.

Pakistan’s Response

Pakistan’s foreign office dismissed the sanctions as biased and unfounded, emphasizing that its strategic arsenal is solely defensive, aimed at deterring threats from India. It rejected the assumption that its missile program harbors hostile intent against the U.S., terming such claims illogical and perplexing.

Implications

1. Strained US-Pakistan Relations

These sanctions represent another setback in already fragile U.S.-Pakistan relations, which have struggled since the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. Perceived hostility from Washington could deepen Islamabad’s mistrust and further weaken bilateral ties.

2. Closer Pakistan-China Ties

As Washington isolates Islamabad, Pakistan is likely to strengthen its strategic partnership with China. Beijing’s consistent support for Pakistan’s missile program and infrastructure development, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), offers Islamabad an alternative to U.S. cooperation.

3. Impact on South Asia’s Stability

The sanctions may exacerbate regional instability by fueling Pakistan’s reliance on its strategic deterrent amid rising tensions with India. Additionally, the sanctions could embolden adversarial narratives, potentially escalating the arms race in the region.

4. Geopolitical Shifts

By pushing Pakistan closer to China, the U.S. risks further aligning Islamabad with Beijing’s strategic objectives in South Asia, undermining its own influence in the region.

Conclusion

The U.S. decision to impose sanctions on Pakistan's missile program reflects broader concerns about global arms control. However, such actions risk unintended consequences, including weakening diplomatic ties, pushing Pakistan closer to China, and amplifying instability in South Asia. To foster regional stability, Washington may need to recalibrate its approach, balancing strategic concerns with the need for engagement and dialogue with Islamabad.


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